398
FXUS06 KWBC 181902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED MARCH 18 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 24 - 28 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PREDICTED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND ARE
CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
MANUAL BLEND INDICATES BELOW NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER
LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA STRETCHING ACROSS MOST OF CANADA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. A PAIR OF MID LEVEL TROUGHS ARE FORECAST WITHIN THIS BROAD
AREA OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS, CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND OVER EASTERN
CANADA. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST UPSTREAM OF THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH, CENTERED OVERBERING SEA, WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT DEPARTURES OF GREATER
THAN +210 METERS. THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, BUT MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONTIGUOUS
UNITED STATES (CONUS) IS FORECAST TO BE DOMINATED BY EXPANSIVE RIDGING.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST IN THE VICINITY OF HAWAII, LEADING TO A
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE.
EXPANSIVE RIDGING SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE PREDICTED
ANOMALOUS STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE LEADS TO EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
(GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS DUE TO PREDICTED TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY.
CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EVEN HIGHER ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA
DUE TO PREDICTED DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE
(GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE) OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CLOSE TO THE
PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGING.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR HAWAII, INFLUENCED BY
OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
THE PREDICTED EXPANSIVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORT
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THECONUS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
(GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
GREATEST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA,
SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN , THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST, ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXPECTED ENHANCED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN PREDICTED RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND TROUGHING TO THE NORTH.
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA DUE
TO PREDICTED MEAN OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, DUE TO THE PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN UNDERNEATH
PREDICTED PERSISTENT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 60% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET
BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 26 - APR 01, 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS OF THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE 8-14 DAY AVERAGE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN,
AND ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECASTS, WITH SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION OF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE MEAN
PATTERN STILL FAVORS BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER LATITUDES
OF NORTH AMERICA AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. PROMINENT
HIGH LATITUDE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO BE PREDICTED FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA AND OVER
ATLANTIC CANADA, WITH STRONG RIDGING FORECAST OVER EASTERN SIBERIA, ALBEIT WITH
REDUCED AMPLITUDE RELATIVE TO THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST, THE AMPLITUDE OF THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN.
HOWEVER, THE RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE EXPANSIVE, WITH ABOVE NORMAL MEAN
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS STRETCHING FROM COAST TO COAST. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO WEEK-2 ACROSS HAWAII, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
POTENTIAL LONG-DURATION ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
DESPITE THE REDUCED AMPLITUDE OF THE WEEK-2 PATTERN, WIDESPREAD ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS (EXCEPT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WHERE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST) DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE NATURE OF THE PREDICTED RIDGE. CONFIDENCE FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS STILL VERY HIGH (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE)
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA, AND PORTIONS OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION, PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA, AS THE PREDICTED
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, DUE TO PREDICTED
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR HAWAII TILTS WARMER
THAN NORMAL, CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, AS RIDGING AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
PERSIST IN MODEL FORECASTS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO LIKELY OVER MOST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. A TILT
TOWARD NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND FLORIDA DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR MOST OF ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED MEAN
OFFSHORE FLOW. A PROLONGED ACTIVE PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII UNDERNEATH
PREDICTED PERSISTENT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO A
PREDICTED HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD OFFSET BY A POTENTIAL
PATTERN TRANSITION LATER IN THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070315 - 20030329 - 20170302 - 20210331 - 20130314
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070315 - 20030329 - 20210330 - 20250325 - 20170301
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 24 - 28 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA B B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA A B OHIO N N KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B N MAINE B A
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA N B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 26 - APR 01, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N B
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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