885
FXUS05 KWBC 191230
PMD90D
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS
LA NIñA CONDITIONS REMAIN PRESENT AS DEPICTED BY CURRENT OCEANIC AND
ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS. A TRANSITION FROM LA NIñA TO EL NIñO SOUTHERN
OSCILLATION (ENSO)-NEUTRAL IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT MONTH, WITH ENSO-NEUTRAL
FAVORED THROUGH MAY-JULY 2026. IN JUNE-AUGUST 2026, EL NIñO IS LIKELY TO
EMERGE AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF 2026.
THE APRIL-MAY-JUNE (AMJ) 2026 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL SEASONAL
MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. A TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ALSO FORECAST FOR COASTAL
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 60
PERCENT) OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS OF THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE MODESTLY FAVORED FOR EAST-CENTRAL ALASKA.
THE AMJ 2026 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK DEPICTS MODESTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF
BELOW NORMAL SEASONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MUCH OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES AS WELL AS AREAS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH AND
GREAT PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF WESTERN ALASKA
AND FOR A REGION THAT INCLUDES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
EQUAL CHANCES (EC) ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR EACH CATEGORY
OF SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES.
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS
NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
LA NIñA CONDITIONS REMAIN PRESENT IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN AS SHOWN BY
BOTH OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC INDICATORS. BELOW-NORMAL RELATIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR FROM THE DATE
LINE TO 120 W. THESE DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL HAVE DECREASED IN MAGNITUDE OVER
THE LAST FEW MONTHS AS LA NIñA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE LATEST WEEKLY VALUE OF
THE RELATIVE NINO3.4 SST INDEX IS -0.5 DEGREES C.
IN THE ATMOSPHERE, ANOMALOUS CONVECTION AND LOWER- AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IN THE
TROPICAL PACIFIC REMAIN QUITE CONSISTENT WITH LA NIñA CONDITIONS - PERHAPS THE
STRONGEST OF THE ENTIRE WINTER SEASON.
BUT CONDITIONS AT DEPTH ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN ARE QUITE
DIFFERENT. THE MOST RECENT SUBSURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURES SHOW AN EXPANSIVE AREA
OF WARMER THAN NORMAL WATER ACROSS THE ENTIRE PACIFIC TO A DEPTH RANGING FROM
150-250 METERS. POSITIVE OCEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES EXCEED +3-4 DEGREES C SO A
LARGE, DEEP RESERVOIR OF WARMER THAN AVERAGE WATER IS AVAILABLE TO POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF EL NIñO.
LARGE AREAS OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH ATLANTIC OCEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WARMER THAN NORMAL SSTS AS DO THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. BELOW NORMAL SSTS ARE CURRENTLY IN ICE FREE WATERS
NEAR ALASKA DUE TO PERSISTENT TROUGHING AND A COLDER THAN NORMAL WINTER ACROSS
MOST OF THE STATE.
A REVIEW OF CURRENT SNOW DEPTH ANOMALIES IN THE CONUS SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW
NORMAL SNOWPACK FOR MOST AREAS IN THE WESTERN U.S., SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND NORTHEAST. RAPID SNOWMELT OCCURRED IN THE NORTHEAST AND SO
ANOMALOUSLY WET SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN SOME AREAS.
AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THE AMJ 2026 OUTLOOK IS THE EXTENSIVE DROUGHT COVERAGE
ACROSS THE CONUS. APPROXIMATELY 54% OF THE CONUS IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
MODERATE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT AS OF EARLY-MID MARCH, BASED ON THE U.S.
DROUGHT MONITOR. DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS PLAYED A ROLE IN THE OUTLOOK FOR AREAS
IN THE WEST, SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING FLORIDA.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS
THE CPC OBJECTIVE, SKILL WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATION, THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL
ENSEMBLE (NMME) AND THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOGUE (CA) NIñO3.4 SST OUTLOOKS ARE
CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING A QUICK TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL THIS SPRING AND
POTENTIAL EL NIñO DEVELOPMENT BY THE SUMMER MONTHS IN 2026. THESE FORECASTS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN POSITIVE NIñO3.4 TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES INTO
LATE AUTUMN AND THE OFFICIAL ODDS FOR EL NIñO CONDITIONS IS NEAR 80% BY THE
OCT-NOV-DEC 2026 SEASON. THERE REMAINS, HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE FORECAST SPREAD
WITHIN ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMS AND BETWEEN ALL FORECAST GUIDANCE OVERALL.
THIS IS NOT SURPRISING AS AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, PREDICTIONS OFTEN SHOW
LOWER SKILL FOR ENSO CONDITIONS LATER IN THE CALENDAR YEAR (I.E. SPRING
PREDICTABILITY BARRIER).
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS
PHYSICAL SUBSEASONAL TO SEASONAL (S2S) CLIMATE DRIVERS CONSIDERED IN THE SET OF
OUTLOOKS INCLUDE ANOMALOUS LAND SURFACE STATES, IN PARTICULAR ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS DEFICITS IN SNOWPACK ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. IMPACTS
FROM POTENTIAL EL NIñO DEVELOPMENT ARE CONSIDERED AND UTILIZED FROM THE
JUN-JUL-AUG (JJA) 2026 SEASON ONWARDS THROUGH LATE AUTUMN WITH MODEST AND SLOW
ADJUSTMENTS AT THESE INTERMEDIATE LEADS.
THE NMME AND COPERNICUS CLIMATE SUITE (C3S) DYNAMICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS
AND THEIR PARTICIPANT MODELS ARE UTILIZED AS WELL AS EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT FROM A
BETA VERSION OF THE SEASONAL FORECAST SYSTEM (SFS, FUTURE SYSTEM TO REPLACE THE
CFSV2). STANDARD STATISTICAL FORECAST TOOLS AND OBJECTIVE, SKILL WEIGHTED
CONSOLIDATION GUIDANCE AND LONG TERM TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS
CONTRIBUTED STRONGLY TO THE OUTLOOKS AT VARIOUS LEADS AND LOCATIONS. IN
PARTICULAR, THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA) ANCHORED TO SST AND A COMPANION
ANCHORED TO SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES PLAYED A SOMEWHAT LARGER ROLE THAN NORMAL
IN THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - AMJ 2026 TO AMJ 2027
TEMPERATURE
THERE IS QUITE GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG FORECAST STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE AND OTHER TOOLS AND INFORMATION FOR LARGE COVERAGE AND GENERALLY HIGH
PROBABILITIES (IN SOME AREAS) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
CONUS DURING AMJ 2026. WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. EC IS FORECAST FOR THIS
REGION GIVEN LESS AGREEMENT IN FORECAST TOOLS AND UNCERTAINTY IN EVOLVING LAND
SURFACE CONDITIONS, WHICH INCREASES UNCERTAINTY IN THE OUTLOOK. THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST. CALIBRATED
PROBABILITIES FROM THE NMME AND C3S DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, STATISTICAL
FORECAST TOOLS AND THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ANOMALOUSLY DRY SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS AND SUBSEQUENT SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES SUPPORT THESE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES.
FOR ALASKA, UNCERTAINTY WAS QUITE HIGH AND ODDS FOR FORECAST ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE STATE ARE BASED PRIMARILY ON
WEAK CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. ELEVATED ODDS FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS IS
INTRODUCED BY UTILIZATION OF STABLE NATURAL ANALOGS KEYED TO RECENT AND CURRENT
CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICS AND EXTRATROPICS.
CONSISTENCY IN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND FORECAST RATIONALE
NOTED FOR THE AMJ OUTLOOK REMAINED THROUGH THE MAY-JUNE-JULY (MJJ) AND JJA 2026
SEASONS. THE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUSLY RELEASED SEASONAL OUTLOOK PACKAGE FROM
MID-FEBRUARY FOR THESE SEASONS ARE (1) AN INCREASE IN PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS IN THE ROCKIES AND SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND PARTS
OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST, (2) A LARGER REGION OF EC IS FORECAST DURING JJA
2026 DUE TO POTENTIAL EL NIñO IMPACTS LATER IN THE SEASON (E.G. TILT TOWARD
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS) CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES, AND (3) AN
ADJUSTMENT OF FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN ALASKA FROM THE WEST COAST
TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS FORECAST FOR THE
WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SEP-OCT-NOV (SON) 2026 SEASON, HOWEVER, A DECREASE IN
ODDS IS DEPICTED FOR THE SOUTH/CENTRAL ROCKIES, SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS PROSPECTS OF AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST MONSOON AND THEN POTENTIAL EL NIñO
IMPACTS COME INTO PLAY. DEPENDING ON THE CONFIDENCE OF THESE TWO FACTORS MOVING
FORWARD, THESE PROBABILITIES WILL BE ADJUSTED AS NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT
OUTLOOK PACKAGES. SHOULD EL NIñO MATERIALIZE AS CURRENTLY FAVORED, POTENTIAL
IMPACTS DURING THE LATE SUMMER AND EARLY AUTUMN SUPPORT A VERY SLIGHT TILT
TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR AN AREA NEAR THE GREAT LAKES, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE VERY MINOR TILT AWAY FROM
CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES. OVER THIS SAME PERIOD AND CONTINUING TO
DEC-JAN-FEB (DJF) 2026-2027, ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INCREASE ACROSS
THE STATE OF ALASKA.
EL NIñO CONSIDERATIONS ARE THE BASIS FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS APPROACHING
AND ENTERING THE JAN-FEB-MAR (JFM) 2027 SEASON AS IS THE FORECAST OF EC FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE REMAINING FORECAST LEADS ARE PRIMARILY BASED ON
LONG TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS (I.E. OCN).
PRECIPITATION
THE AMJ 2026 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS BELOW NORMAL SEASONAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FOR A REGION FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
EASTWARD TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. THIS HIGHLIGHTED AREA IS SUPPORTED BY MODERATE CONSENSUS IN NMME
AND C3S MODEL FORECASTS, THE CA FORECAST TOOL ANCHORED TO SOIL MOISTURE
ANOMALIES, AS WELL AS A CONSISTENT SIGNATURE FROM REVIEWED NATURAL ANALOG
FORECAST INFORMATION. FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES, MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST BASED ON MODEST
AGREEMENT IN DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND LONG TERM WET PRECIPITATION TRENDS.
IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S., ALTHOUGH THE APRIL MONTHLY OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS FAVORED
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS, THE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR AMJ
2026 IS MADE AND PLAUSIBLE AS THE MAJORITY OF SEASONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
FALL IN THIS REGION, ESPECIALLY FLORIDA, FROM MID MAY THROUGH THE END OF JUNE.
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST COAST
OF ALASKA.
EVOLUTION OF THE OUTLOOKS THROUGH ASO 2026 DEPICT A FORECAST OF AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST U.S. MONSOON, WITH AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING IN MJJ 2026 FOR SOUTHERN AREAS THAT EXPANDS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER (JAS) 2026 SEASON BEFORE EASING IN
SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER-NOVEMBER (SON) 2026. THE RATIONALE FOR THE FORECAST IS
PROSPECTS FOR ABOVE NORMAL HEAT DURING THE PRE-MONSOON PERIOD DUE TO
ANOMALOUSLY DRY SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, CONSIDERABLY BELOW NORMAL SNOWPACK
AND FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PRECEDING SEASONS. THE NMME AND C3S
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ALSO HAVE A MODEST CONSENSUS FOR FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION, ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND SO
UNCERTAINTY.
ALONG WITH THE WET SIGNAL HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THE MONSOON REGION, AN AREA OF
FAVORED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS INITIALLY INTRODUCED DURING JJA 2026 AND CONTINUING FOR JAS 2026 AND TO
A LESSER DEGREE DURING ASO 2026. THE CA FORECAST TOOL ANCHORED TO ANOMALOUS
SOIL MOISTURE AND NMME CALIBRATED MODEL GUIDANCE PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THIS
HIGHLIGHTED AREA.
MODEL GUIDANCE (EARLY LEADS) AND POTENTIAL EL NINO IMPACTS (LATER LEADS DURING
SUMMER AND AUTUMN MONTHS) SUPPORT ENHANCED ODDS OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH AUTUMN 2026.
LONG TERM WET PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND MODEST CONSENSUS FROM DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS THE BASIS FOR FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH ASO 2026. THEREAFTER, SLIGHTLY ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ADDED ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. FROM
SON 2026 THROUGH JFM 2027 CONSISTENT WITH A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INCREASE IN THE
ODDS OF EL NIñO AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS IN THESE AREAS. ALONG THESE LINES, A
VERY SLIGHT TILT TOWARD FAVORED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS DEPICTED NEAR THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES FOR DJF 2026-2027 AND JFM 2027. FOR ALASKA, AN
INCREASE IN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE FROM ASO 2026 THROUGH OND 2026 AS SHOWN BY AN
OBJECTIVE, SKILL WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATION OF STATISTICAL AND WHERE AVAILABLE
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE.
FORECASTER: JON GOTTSCHALCK
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1991 AND 2020, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE
FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/TOOLS.HTML
(USE LOWER CASE LETTERS)
INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/OUTLOOK/OUTLOOK.SHTM
L
(USE LOWERCASE LETTERS)
NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR
VALID PERIOD. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM
RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.
THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON APR 16 2026
1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 20, 2021
FORECAST RELEASE.
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