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FXUS07 KWBC 191230
PMD30D
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR APR 2026
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR APRIL 2026 ARE BASED ON
EXTENDED- AND SUBSEASONAL-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE, CONSIDERATION OF ENSO PHASE,
CLIMATE DRIVERS (SUCH AS SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) AND SOIL MOISTURE
ANOMALIES, AND SNOWPACK), RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND DECADAL TRENDS.
THE COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING FROM A
WANING LA NINA TO ENSO-NEUTRAL. SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC ARE NOW MOSTLY ABOVE-AVERAGE FROM THE SURFACE TO A DEPTH OF 150-200
METERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RESIDUAL, ANOMALOUSLY COOL SSTS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE WEEKLY NINO 3.4 RELATIVE SST ANOMALY (USING THE
IMPROVED RONI CLASSIFICATION) IS A NOMINAL -0.5 DEG C. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE,
ATMOSPHERIC CHANGES TEND TO LAG OCEANIC CHANGES. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE
STILL CONSISTENT WITH LA NINA, AND ARE EXPECTED TO PLAY A SMALL ROLE IN THE
APRIL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS. ATMOSPHERIC OUTGOING LONGWAVE
RADIATION (OLR) DEPARTURES ARE STILL NEGATIVE ACROSS INDONESIA AND MUCH OF
AUSTRALIA (CORRESPONDING TO ENHANCED TROPICAL RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY), AND ARE POSITIVE (CORRESPONDING TO SUPPRESSED TROPICAL RAINFALL AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY) IN THE VICINITY OF THE DATE LINE. A LARGE AREA OF
NEGATIVE OLR DEPARTURES IS ALSO PROMINENT OVER AND WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH RECENT KONA LOW ACTIVITY WITH ITS HEAVY RAINFALL,
GUSTY WINDS, AND FLOODING. LOW-LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES ARE EASTERLY (I.E. ENHANCED
TRADES) WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES ARE WESTERLY. CPCS OFFICIAL ENSO
FORECAST PROBABILITY BAR GRAPH INDICATES VERY HIGH (>80 PERCENT) CHANCES OF
ENSO-NEUTRAL DURING THE MARCH-APRIL-MAY (MAM) AND APRIL-MAY-JUNE (AMJ) SEASONS,
WITH EL NINO PREDICTED (WITH A 62 PERCENT CHANCE) TO BE THE DOMINANT ENSO PHASE
BY JUNE-JULY-AUGUST (JJA).
THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) SIGNAL IS LARGELY INCOHERENT, AS EQUATORIAL
ROSSBY WAVES HAVE FREQUENTLY INTERRUPTED THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE
ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC DURING THE LAST FEW WEEKS.
THERE ARE VERY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED PHASE AND
AMPLITUDE OF THE INTRASEASONAL SIGNAL DURING LATE MARCH AND EARLY APRIL, SO THE
MJO WAS NOT USED IN THE APRIL OUTLOOKS. THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) IS
CURRENTLY IN ITS POSITIVE PHASE, AND GEFS FORECASTS INDICATE A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO ITS NEGATIVE PHASE IN LATE MARCH, WHICH TYPICALLY FAVORS
COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THOUGH
SUPPORT FOR A NEGATIVE AO IS NOT OVERWHELMING, ANOMALOUSLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WERE CONSIDERED FOR THE SPECIFIED REGIONS NOTED ABOVE IN EARLY APRIL.
NEAR-COASTAL SSTS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW-AVERAGE IN BRISTOL BAY OFF SOUTHWESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA, AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS). ABOVE-AVERAGE SSTS WERE NOTED OFF MOST OF CALIFORNIA, AND THE GULF
COAST REGION. SOIL MOISTURE DATA FROM CPCS LEAKY BUCKET MODEL AND NASA SPORT
SHOW WIDESPREAD BELOW-NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL LOWER 48 STATES. AREAS OF NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE WERE
CONFINED LARGELY TO THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
MOUNTAINOUS WEST, SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) AND RELATED SNOWPACK WAS WAY
BELOW-NORMAL (< 50 PERCENT). THIS AREA STRETCHED FROM THE LOWER FOUR CORNERS
REGION NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MOST OF OREGON.
THE APRIL TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN, CENTRAL, AND INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN CONUS,
COVERING APPROXIMATELY TWO-THIRDS OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THIS IS LARGELY
SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMICAL AND FINAL CONSOLIDATION FORECASTS (NMME-CON AND
FINAL-CON, RESPECTIVELY), THE CFS, MOST OF THE NMME AND IMME/C3S, CAS
(CONSTRUCTED ANALOG ON SOIL MOISTURE TOOL), AND HISTORICAL TRENDS (OCN TOOL).
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH WIDESPREAD DROUGHT AND BELOW-NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE
CURRENTLY OVER THE CONUS, AND WITH BELOW-NORMAL SNOWPACK OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR WEST. CHANCES OF FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 50 PERCENT
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA (WITH APRIL CLIMATOLOGICALLY BEING THE HEIGHT OF THE
DRY SEASON), AND EXCEED 60 PERCENT OVER THE VICINITY OF UTAH. IN ALASKA, THE
ASSORTED MODELS AND TOOLS PROVIDE A WIDE ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS, THOUGH MANY SHOWED
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA TO BE ABOVE-NORMAL. ELSEWHERE, WHICH INCLUDES THE
LARGE REMAINDER OF ALASKA, PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS,
GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC, EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF ABOVE-,
NEAR-, AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED.
THE APRIL PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER A BROAD ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MOST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE OHIO VALLEY, WESTERN
TENNESSEE, NORTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS
PATTERN OF ANOMALOUS WETNESS IS DEPICTED BY A NUMBER OF MODELS (TO VARIOUS
DEGREES) INCLUDING THE STATISTICAL CONSOLIDATION (STAT-CON), NMME-CON, AND
FINAL-CON (THE LATTER BEING A SKILL-WEIGHTED AND CALIBRATED MEAN OF THE
STAT-CON AND NMME-CON). THE UNCALIBRATED NMME, CFS, CANESM5 (ONE OF TWO
AVAILABLE CANADIAN MODELS), CAS, UNCALIBRATED IMME/C3S, ECMWF, UKMO (UK MET
OFFICE), DWD (GERMAN MODEL) AND THE TWO NCAR MODELS (NCAR_CESM1 AND NCAR_CCSM4)
ALSO SUPPORT REASONABLE VARIATIONS ON THIS SAME GENERAL THEME. CHANCES FOR
DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 60 PERCENT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE AND PRECIPITATION
TRENDS DURING THE LAST 15 YEARS AS SHOWN BY THE OCN TOOL. LOW SNOWPACK AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES PREDICTED IN LATE MARCH OVER THE WEST WILL
ACCELERATE SNOWMELT. ONCE MUCH OF THE SNOWPACK MELTS, THE BARE GROUND WILL HEAT
UP MORE QUICKLY, LEADING TO MORE DRYNESS. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO
FAVORED OVER FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA, WITH APRIL TYPICALLY BEING THE
HEIGHT OF THE FLORIDA DRY SEASON AND THE GREATEST RISK FOR WILDFIRES. EVEN
THOUGH BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN FLORIDA DURING APRIL, THE
APRIL-MAY-JUNE (AMJ) SEASONAL PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK COULD VERIFY AS
WETTER-THAN-NORMAL, GIVEN THE TRANSITION TO THE FLORIDA RAINY SEASON IN LATE
MAY OR EARLY JUNE. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MAINLAND, BASED ON CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED
VERSIONS OF THE C3S, METEO_FRANCE, ECMWF, CFS, UKMO, CMCC (ONE OF TWO AVAILABLE
CANADIAN MODELS), AND THE GERMAN MODEL (DWD).
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1991 AND 2020, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR APR WILL BE ISSUED ON TUE MARCH 31 2026
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD.
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