375
FOUS11 KWBC 191903
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
303 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
VALID 00Z FRI MAR 20 2026 - 00Z MON MAR 23 2026
..UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST
DAYS 1-3...
RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
WITH MINOR TO OCCASIONALLY MODEST SNOWFALL. A SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA THIS EVENING WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
INTO SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TOMORROW. WAA-DRIVEN SNOW AND
SOME LIGHT ICING IS LIKELY OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN AND INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AS THE CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING, SNOW WILL FALL MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS (ABOVE 1500FT OR SO) WHERE WPC PROBABILITIES FOR AT
LEAST 4" ARE >50%, WITH LESSER ACCUMULATIONS TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
(T-2"). PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ON SATURDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL SLIP INTO NORTHERN MN AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST
THERMAL GRADIENT, SOME ICING IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVER
NORTHEASTERN MN, NORTHERN WI, AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN NEAR THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT. THAT SYSTEM MAY TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH,
WHICH COULD BRING IN AT LEAST SOME LIGHT TO MODEST SNOW TO
NORTHEASTERN MN INTO THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN. THERE, WPC PROBABILITIES
FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE >40% SATURDAY INTO VERY EARLY
SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL RACE EASTWARD AND BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF
SNOW TO NORTHERN NYS INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THROUGH 00Z/MON, WPC
PROBABILITIES FOR AN ADDITIONAL 4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE >30% OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE GREEN/WHITE
MOUNTAINS, BUT THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE BEYOND THIS FORECAST RANGE.
THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING ACROSS THE CONUS IS LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.
FRACASSO
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