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FXUS06 KWBC 191929
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU MARCH 19 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 25 - 29 2026
THE 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE (ECENS), GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE (CMCE) MEANS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES BELOW NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST
OF THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA STRETCHING ACROSS MOST OF CANADA AND
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, WITH HEIGHT ANOMALIES APPROACHING -250 METERS
NEAR NORTHEASTERN HUDSON BAY. A PAIR OF MID LEVEL TROUGHS ARE FORECAST WITHIN
THIS BROAD AREA OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS, ONE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND A
WEAKER ONE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SECOND MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE CMCE AND ECENS MEANS
ARE WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN YESTERDAY WHILE THE GEFS MEAN MAINTAINS
YESTERDAY'S STRONGER FORECAST. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FURTHER COMPLICATE THE
ISSUE AS BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN (ECMWF) DYNAMICAL MODELS EXTEND THE TROUGH
FARTHER SOUTH, ALMOST HALFWAY BETWEEN SOUTHERN ALASKA AND HAWAII. A COMPROMISE
OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS IS FAVORED, LEANING TOWARD THE GEFS DUE TO ITS
CONSISTENCY. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST UPSTREAM FROM THIS TROUGH,
CENTERED OVER OR NEAR THE BERING SEA, WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT DEPARTURES OF
GREATER THAN +210 METERS. THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, BUT MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONTIGUOUS
UNITED STATES (CONUS) IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINATED BY EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING, WITH THE MANUAL BLEND DEPICTING HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXCEEDING +150 METERS
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
IS FORECAST IN THE VICINITY OF HAWAII, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE.
EXPANSIVE RIDGING SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS, EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE PREDICTED
ANOMALOUS STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE LEADS TO EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
(GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS DUE TO PREDICTED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING REACHING SOUTHWARD FROM
EASTERN CANADA. AN ALLEY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES,
STRETCHING FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO MID-ATLANTIC AND UPPER SOUTHEAST. THIS
REFLECTS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF COLD
CANADIAN AIR, AND ITS PERSISTENCE AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA DUE TO ARCTIC
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN FRINGES OF MAINLAND ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREDICTED STRONG
ANOMALOUS RIDGING. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR
HAWAII, INFLUENCED BY OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN
THE ADJACENT PACIFIC, AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION.
THE PREDICTED EXPANSIVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORT
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
(GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF
CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT NEVADA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST UNDER UNUSUALLY STRONG, CYCLONICALLY-CURVED MID-LEVEL
FLOW BETWEEN POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES TO THE SOUTH AND MUCH LOWER
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CANADA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED IN
THE FAR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE A FETCH OF MOIST, TROPICAL AIR MAY BEGIN TO
SET UP SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MEAN ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE, AND ALSO OVER
SOUTHERN FLORIDA IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. FARTHER NORTH, DOWNSTREAM FROM A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH, SOUTHEAST ALASKA ALSO HAS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION; HOWEVER, SUBNORMAL AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM FROM A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE, UNDER ARCTIC
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
UNDERNEATH PREDICTED PERSISTENT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW, CONSISTENT WITH THE
CONSOLIDATION AND MOST FORECAST TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND
15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET
BY SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS, AND
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EXTENT AND PERSISTENCE OF COLD AIR IN PARTS OF THE
EAST.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 27 - APR 02, 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS OF THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE 8-14 DAY AVERAGE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN,
AND ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECASTS, WITH SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION OF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ACROSS THE
CONUS, TODAY'S MANUAL BLEND DEPICTS THE GREATEST POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES A BIT FARTHER EAST AND LESS AMPLIFIED THAN YESTERDAY, EXCEEDING +90
METERS IN A BAND FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO NORTH CAROLINA AND
ADJACENT VIRGINIA. THIS LIFTS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
COURSE OF WEEK-2, LIMITING SUBNORMAL MEAN HEIGHTS TO NEW ENGLAND. A MEAN
MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE PREDICTED FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA, WITH
UNCERTAINTIES OF LOCATION AND STRENGTH CARRYING OVER FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
MEANWHILE, STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER EASTERN
SIBERIA, ALBEIT WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED AMPLITUDE RELATIVE TO THE 6 TO 10 DAY
PERIOD. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IMPACTING HAWAII,
CONTINUING A LONG-DURATION ACTIVE PATTERN THERE.
DESPITE THE REDUCED AMPLITUDE OF THE WEEK-2 PATTERN, WIDESPREAD ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS DUE TO THE
EXPANSIVE NATURE OF THE PREDICTED RIDGE. CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS STILL VERY HIGH (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE) OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA, AND PART OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. SUBNORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES DESPITE THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY RETREATING
NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY ACROSS
MOST OF ALASKA UNDER PERSISTENT ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE
UPSTREAM SIBERIAN RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG SIBERIAN RIDGE. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR HAWAII TILTS WARMER THAN NORMAL, CONSISTENT WITH
OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC, AND THE CONSOLIDATION.
THE DEAMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO
ALLOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET TO SINK INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE REGION FROM
CANADA, SLIGHTLY ENHANCING THE ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN A BAND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND. FARTHER SOUTH, ENHANCED CHANCES FOR WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
COVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS UNDER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
EXPECTED AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS AND DRIFTS EASTWARD. SOUTHERN FLORIDA
IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER DEEP EASTERLY FLOW, INCREASING THE ODDS FOR SURPLUS
PRECIPITATION THERE. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS
PARTS OF CALIFORNIA AND THE INTERIOR WEST CONSISTENT WITH ECENS OUTPUT, AND
ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST UNDER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF UNCERTAIN STRENGTH WHILE
BELOW-NORMAL AMOUNTS ARE MORE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND CLOSER TO THE
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A PROLONGED ACTIVE PATTERN IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE FOR
HAWAII UNDERNEATH PREDICTED PERSISTENT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW AND BELOW-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT ON A PREDICTED HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD,
OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGES TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: RICH TINKER
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070316 - 20030329 - 20250324 - 20070311 - 20130314
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070315 - 20030329 - 20250325 - 20130314 - 20150401
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 25 - 29 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA N N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N B
TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N B
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 27 - APR 02, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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