151
FXUS01 KWBC 192004
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
VALID 00Z FRI MAR 20 2026 - 00Z SUN MAR 22 2026
...AN ANOMALOUSLY EARLY AND RECORD-BREAKING HEATWAVE CONTINUES
INTO THE WEEKEND, WHILE EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...
...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOWFALL TO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND AND A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW...
...CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER IS LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...
A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HEAT
RISK TOOL CONTINUES TO INDICATE THREATS FOR WIDESPREAD MAJOR TO
MODERATE IMPACTS ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. IN TERMS OF LOCAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS, EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME REGIONS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
CHALLENGE AND BREAK MONTHLY RECORDS FOR MARCH AS THE MERCURY
FLIRTS INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE VALLEYS IN
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE 100-110 F RANGE FOR THE DESERTS IN ARIZONA
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM
AND PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF, RELATIVELY FOR THE TIME OF THE YEAR,
FROM THE HEAT AS TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL INTO THE 60S. THE HEAT
DOME IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND
WITH IT, THE RECORD BREAKING HEAT. THE ROCKIES AND THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THE QUANTITY OF STATIONS
ECLIPSING POTENTIAL RECORD MARCH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY, EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S ACROSS TEXAS AND LOW TO MIDDLE 90S AS FAR NORTH AS
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. MODERATE HEAT RISK IMPACTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THESE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HEAT BUBBLE, A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM,
OTHERWISE KNOWN AS A CLIPPER, WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW. AREAS IN NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK
ARE EXPECTED TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE ORDER
OF 2-5 INCHES ON FRIDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
AS TRAVEL COULD BE SLIPPERY. ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN AND UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND
THE APPALACHIANS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE SOME HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS, THOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, PER THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER'S DISCUSSION.
A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER IS OUTLINED BY SPC FOR TOMORROW
AND LIKELY SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS RISK IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE ANOMALOUS
MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.. WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FIRE SPREAD. MUCH OF WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA ARE UNDER A RED FLAG WARNING.
A STUBBORN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER 2-3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, BEFORE THE STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
CLEAR THE REGION BY SUNDAY. THERE IS A THREAT FOR FLOODING FROM
MOSTLY RIVERS, BUT CONTINUED RAINFALL OVER SATURATED GROUNDS MAY
STILL LEAD TO INUNDATION OVER LOW-LYING REGIONS. AS SUCH, A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES INTO TOMORROW.
WILDER
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