534
FXUS06 KWBC 201902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI MARCH 20 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 26 - 30 2026
THE 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE (ECENS), GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE (CMCE) MEANS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES BELOW NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, ALONG WITH THE ADJACENT NORTH PACIFIC
OCEAN. HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT 500-HPA APPROACH -250 METERS NEAR NORTHEASTERN
HUDSON BAY. A PAIR OF MID LEVEL TROUGHS ARE FORECAST WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA OF
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS, ONE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND A MUCH WEAKER ONE
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THE SECOND MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER WITH THE MEAN SYSTEM THAN YESTERDAY. THE CMCE AND ECENS MEANS REMAIN
WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GEFS MEAN. THE DETERMINISTIC EUROPEAN (ECMWF)
MODEL IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS THAN YESTERDAY,
KEEPING A WEAKER MEAN TROUGH FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST, CLOSE TO OR OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A COMPROMISE IS FAVORED, WHICH IS MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECENS.
THIS IS JUSTIFIED BY THE TREND IN ALL THE ENSEMBLE MEANS TO WEAKEN THIS TROUGH
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST UPSTREAM FROM THIS
TROUGH, CENTERED FROM NORTH OF THE ALEUTIANS INTO LOWER EASTERN SIBERIA. MEAN
POSITIVE HEIGHT DEPARTURES ARE A LITTLE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, TOPPING OUT
AROUND +190 METERS. FARTHER EAST, THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, BUT MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINATED BY EXPANSIVE
MID-LEVEL RIDGING, WITH THE MANUAL BLEND DEPICTING HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXCEEDING
+150 METERS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. DURING THE PERIOD, THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND RETREATS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND SLOWLY WEAKENS. MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING HOW
QUICKLY THIS PROGRESSION AND DEAMPLIFICATION OCCURS, WHICH IS TYPICAL DURING
FORECASTED SHIFTS IN THE PATTERN. MEANWHILE, THE STRONG TROUGH WEST OF ALASKA
IS EXPECTED TO BROADEN, WEAKEN, AND RETROGRADE, BUT WITH ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS PERSISTING OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA MAINLAND. MEANWHILE, THE FATE OF THE
RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS ALSO UNCERTAIN. THE
ECENS FORECASTING AN EASTWARD DRIFT WITH THE FEATURE REMAINING ESSENTIALLY
INTACT. THE CMCE MEAN WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AND KEEPS THE AXIS OFF THE WESTERN
NORTH AMERICAN COAST, AND THE GEFS MEAN IS EVEN LESS PROGRESSIVE, ESSENTIALLY
ALLOWING THE FEATURE TO DETERIORATE IN PLACE. A COMPROMISE OF THESE FORECASTS
IS FAVORED SINCE THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON TO FAVOR ONE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST
OVER ANY OTHER. TO THE SOUTH, MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST NORTH OR
NORTHWEST OF HAWAII, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS
THE STATE.
EXPANSIVE RIDGING SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CONUS,
FROM THE FAR WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. DUE TO THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
ABOVE NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE WESTERN CONUS,
WITH LIKELIHOODS EXCEEDING 90 PERCENT IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS DUE TO THE PREDICTED
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING, WITH CHANCES EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT IN MAINE NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER. AN ALLEY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES,
STRETCHING FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND UPPER
SOUTHEAST. THIS REFLECTS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD
EXTENT OF COLD CANADIAN AIR, AND ITS PERSISTENCE AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. RAW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM ECENS, CMCE, AND GEFS ALL SHOW RELATIVELY COOL
CONDITIONS EXTENDING FAIRLY FAR SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH THE CMCE
AND ECENS DEPICTING BELOW-NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES AS FAR SOUTH AS EASTERN
GEORGIA. RAW TEMPERATURE OUTPUT FROM THE GEFS KEEPS THE BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS LOWER VIRGINIA, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
ITS WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICA MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE OUTPUT CONTAINS SUBNORMAL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH, AND THE REFORECASTS DO SO TO AN EVEN GREATER DEGREE. THE ECENS AND CMCE
REFORECASTS ONLY BRING BELOW-NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
MID-ATLANTIC WHILE THE GEFS REFORECAST RESTRICTS THESE CONDITIONS TO NEW
ENGLAND AND NEW YORK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY A COMPROMISE LEANING
TOWARD THE RAW AND BIAS-CORRECTED OUTPUT, WHICH IS REFLECTED IN MORE OF THE
ANALOGS AND TELECONNECTIONS. THIS RESULTS IN A TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD
SUBNORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTENDING THROUGH MOST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND LIMITS
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TO PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA DUE TO ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE MOST OF THE STATE. HOWEVER, ENHANCED ODDS FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS STRETCH FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS INTO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
MAINLAND, CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL GUIDANCE. CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXCEED 60 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. WITH TIME, DUE
TO THE EXPECTED START OF A PATTERN SHIFT AND DEAMPLIFICATION, SUBNORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LESSEN ITS GRIP ON THE STATE FROM THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII,
INFLUENCED BY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE
ADJACENT PACIFIC BUT MODERATED BY THE EXPECTED PERSISTENCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION, AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION.
THE PREDICTED EXPANSIVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORT
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CONUS, BUT THE START OF A
PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW A SLOW INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN IN
SOME AREAS. STILL, CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE)
FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA, ALONG WITH
ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN. SUPPORT FOR SUBNORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
LESS ROBUST FARTHER EAST, BUT THE CONSOLIDATION AND SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE
PRECIPITATION TOOLS LEAN TOWARD DRYNESS IN A BAND THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. WITH THE
START OF A SLOW PATTERN SHIFT, PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS
MAY BEGIN TO PICK UP TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EASTWARD. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST UNDER UNUSUALLY STRONG,
CYCLONICALLY-CURVED MID-LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES TO
THE SOUTH AND MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CANADA. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE A FETCH OF MOIST,
TROPICAL AIR MAY BEGIN TO SET UP SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MEAN ANOMALOUS
MID-LEVEL RIDGE, AND ALSO OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CLOSE
TO THE MEXICAN BORDER WHERE INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN
AREA THAT HAS CLIMATOLOGICALLY LOW NORMALS THIS TIME OF YEAR. FARTHER NORTH,
DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID-LEVEL TROUGH, SOUTHEAST ALASKA ALSO HAS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AS DOES THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE
IN CONCERT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE; HOWEVER, SUBNORMAL AMOUNTS ARE SLIGHTLY
FAVORED OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA DOWNSTREAM FROM A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE,
UNDER COLD THOUGH SLOWLY WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS
LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII UNDERNEATH PREDICTED PERSISTENT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW,
CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION AND MOST FORECAST TOOLS. IF THIS IS VERIFIED,
IT WILL EXACERBATE THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION, SATURATED GROUND, AND FLASH
FLOODING CURRENTLY IMPACTING PARTS OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND
20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN,
OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS,
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EXTENT AND PERSISTENCE OF COLD AIR IN PARTS OF THE
EAST, AND OTHER UNCERTAINTIES INHERENT TO FORECASTED MID-LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 28 - APR 03, 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS OF THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE 8-14 DAY AVERAGE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN,
AND ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECASTS. SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS AND CANADA, WITH BOTH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA AND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS WEAKENING AND DRIFTING
EASTWARD. DYNAMICAL MODELS MAINTAIN MORE AMPLITUDE THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DO,
IMPLYING THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE DEAMPLIFICATION IS DUE TO HIGHLY VARIABLE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS' SOLUTIONS, WHICH TEND TO CANCEL EACH OTHER OUT IN THE MEAN.
STILL, TODAY'S MANUAL BLEND SHOWS SIGNIFICANT MEAN POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CONUS, WHICH INCREASES IN COVERAGE AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST SLOWLY LIFTS INTO
CANADA. THE GREATEST MEAN POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXCEED +90 METERS
IN A BROAD BAND FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THIS LIFTS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF WEEK-2,
LIMITING SUBNORMAL MEAN HEIGHTS TO ADJACENT CANADA. FARTHER NORTH, THE STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF ALASKA WEAKENS, BROADENS, AND LIKELY RETROGRADES OVER
THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD. THE EVOLUTION OF CONDITIONS ACROSS ALASKA, THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC, AND TO SOME EXTENT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ARE UNCERTAIN,
WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IN EASTERN CANADA PROGRESSING EASTWARD WHILE A STRONG
RIDGE WEST OF THE REGION WEAKENS AND RETROGRADES. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WEAKEN THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH THERE, WHICH WASN'T PARTICULARLY STRONG TO BEGIN WITH, AND ARE
INCONSISTENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE BY THE END OF WEEK-2. THE ECENS
SHOWS IT ENCROACHING ON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MAINTAINING MORE AMPLITUDE
THAN THE GEFS AND CMCE MEANS, WHICH KEEP WHAT'S LEFT OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS CONSIDERABLY FARTHER WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE,
WITH NO REASON TO FAVOR ONE SOLUTION OVER ANY OTHER AT THIS TIME. MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING HAWAII, ALLOWING A LONG-DURATION
ACTIVE PATTERN THERE TO PERSIST.
DESPITE THE REDUCED AMPLITUDE OF THE WEEK-2 PATTERN, WIDESPREAD ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS DUE TO THE
EXPANSIVE EXTENT OF THE PREDICTED RIDGE. CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAINS HIGH (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE) OVER MUCH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. TO THE EAST, WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING EASTWARD AND
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH RETREATING FROM THE NORTHEAST, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED OVER A BROADER AREA OF THE EAST RELATIVE TO THE 6- TO 10-DAY
PERIOD, WITH ENHANCED CHANCES FOR WARM WEATHER COVERING THE OHIO VALLEY, THE
SOUTHEAST, AND PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. SUBNORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, WITH ODDS TOPPING 60 PERCENT ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
MAINE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
MODERATING DURING WEEK-2, BUT ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
STILL COVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES (OVER 50 PERCENT) ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. MEANWHILE, WARMER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND AND THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS, SLOWLY EXTENDING TOWARD THE CENTRAL MAINLAND LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR HAWAII TILTS WARMER THAN NORMAL IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN
THE ADJACENT PACIFIC, AND THE CONSOLIDATION.
THE DEAMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING INTO MUCH OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED
TO ALLOW ONE OR MORE WEAK SHORTWAVES TO TRACK AROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, SLIGHTLY ENHANCING THE ODDS FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION THERE. FARTHER SOUTH, ENHANCED CHANCES FOR WETTER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS COVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS UNDER
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE COURSE OF WEEK-2. ENSEMBLE
PRECIPITATION TOOLS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS MOISTURE TO REACH NORTHWARD
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS, SLIGHTLY INCREASING
THEIR ODDS FOR SURPLUS PRECIPITATION. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC AREAS UNDER INCREASING
500-HPA HEIGHTS CENTERED UPSTREAM. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY, BUT
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
THAT HAS DOMINATED THE STATE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN CONCERT WITH THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN CHANGES. THE PROLONGED ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
HAWAII WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW AND BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 38% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 32% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, WITH
FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT DETERIORATING OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD, AND THE
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY INHERENT TO FORECAST PATTERN CHANGES DURING THE WEEK-2
PERIOD.
FORECASTER: RICH TINKER
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070316 - 20070311 - 20250324 - 20030329 - 19890403
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070315 - 20030329 - 20250325 - 20070310 - 20150401
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 26 - 30 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA N N OHIO B N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B N MAINE B A
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 28 - APR 03, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B B
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page