272
FXUS02 KWBC 211859
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VALID 12Z TUE MAR 24 2026 - 12Z SAT MAR 28 2026
...ANOMALOUS EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
U.S. ABATING SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK TO SLOWLY REBUILD MIDWEEK...
..OVERVIEW
A DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVE SERIES WILL PROPAGATE OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE U.S. NORTHERN TIER NEXT WEEK. THE MOST PRONOUCED
WAVE MAY FOCUS LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO A WINTRY UPPER MIDWEST THEN NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY-THURSDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES TO MONITOR ON ITS HEELS.
MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTH, UPPER RIDGING WILL SUPPORT GRADUAL HEAT
RENEWAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE GREAT PLAINS MIDWEEK, BUT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE DIGGING OF POST-FRONTAL MODERATING HIGH PRESSURE
INTO LATER WEEK DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S..
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
LATEST MODELS, ENSEMBLES AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS
OVERALL SEEM WELL CLUSTERED AND A SIMPLE COMPOSITE SEEMS TO PROVIDE
A SOLID FORECAST BASIS THROUGH THIS PERIOD IN A GENERALLY BENIGN
WEATHER PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILTY DESPITE STANDARD
AND LINGERING SMALLER SCALE SYSTEM VARIANCES. THIS SOLUTION
MAINTAINS REASONABLE WPC CONTINUITY IN LINE WITH THE NBM.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
WHILE NOT QUITE AS ANOMALOUS AS THIS PAST WEEK, THE MAIN STORY
FOR THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOR ANOTHER PERIOD
OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, WIDESPREAD DAILY-RECORD LEVEL WARMTH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. A PROMINENT UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SUPPORT RENEWED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES UPWARDS TO 20-30
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, AND WIDESPREAD MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
TO THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. THIS HEATWAVE, COMBINED WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND DAILY BOUTS OF GUSTY, DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS MAY LEAD TO POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF VERY STRONG WINDS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS
A DEEPENING LOW IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES PASSES BY.
A POTENT MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATELY
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OR RAIN SINCE THE
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER WESTERN RIDGE.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE OLYMPIC AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS WILL
RECEIVE SNOWFALL. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN WHILE IT
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CENTRAL U.S., BEFORE
REINVIGORATING OVER THE NORTHEAST/CANADA. COOLED NORTHERN TIER U.S.
CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME MODERATE RAIN SOUTH/SNOW NORTH FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY/NORTHEAST INTO LATER
NEXT WEEK, WITH SUBSEQUENT WAVES ADDING SOME PRECIPITATION FOCUS
ALONG THE SOUTHWARD DROPPING FRONT AS TEMPS COOL LATE PERIOD.
KEBEDE/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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