066
FXUS06 KWBC 211902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SAT MARCH 21 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 27 - 31 2026
THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS.
STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME. OVER EASTERN CANADA, A STRONG AREA OF
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FAVORED. WEAK TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER
ALASKA AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND NEAR HAWAII. MEANWHILE, STRONG POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER EASTERN SIBERIA.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS FOR THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE
CONUS, EXCLUDING THE NORTHEAST. THE STRONGEST CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WHERE CHANCES EXCEED 80% OVER PARTS OF ARIZONA WITH A
BROADER 70% CHANCE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS. CHANCES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DECREASE OVER THE NORTHWEST DISPLACED FROM THE STRONGEST
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE REGION. IN THE EAST, A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING AND TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM OVER TIME.
THERE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WHERE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA MAY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE NORTHERLY
FLOW. IN ALASKA, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE WITH ABOVE FAVORED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR MOST OF OAHU AND
KAUAI.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH TOOLS
TRENDING TOWARDS REDUCED PROBABILITIES ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED. THE REFORECAST GUIDANCE
IS HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL BUT THIS IS
LIKELY THE RESULT OF LOW CLIMATOLOGIES IN THE REGION. UNCALIBRATED
PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE SHOWS SPORADIC PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. ANY AREA
THAT RECEIVES PRECIPITATION MAY REACH THE ABOVE NORMAL THRESHOLD BUT IT IS
UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE AT THIS TIME. 40-50% CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR PARTS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES A SLIGHT TILT
TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL IS FAVORED ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OR MORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FROM CALIFORNIA NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE MUCH REDUCED RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING NEARING THE WEST COAST BRINGING MORE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION. IN ALASKA, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE MAINLAND WITH NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FAVORED IN SOUTHEAST AND THE NORTH SLOPE. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED WITH THE CHANCES INCREASING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND
20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), BASED
ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 29 - APR 04, 2026
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO
GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE 6-10 DAY AND WEEK-2 PERIOD. POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING WEEK-2 WITH WEAK TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE WEEK-2 MEAN. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL WEST COAST TROUGH. THE
ECENS PROGRESSES THE FEATURE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS EARLIER AND FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER, THE GEFS IS A BIT SLOWER AND MAINTAINS THE STRONGEST
TROUGHING SIGNATURE OFF THE WEST COAST. THE CMCE SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE.
THEREFORE, THE WEEK-2 MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND FEATURES THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS RIGHT
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH STRETCHES NORTH BACK INTO ALASKA BUT REMAINS
MUCH WEAKER THAN IN PRIOR WEEKS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN
FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. IN HAWAII, THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE TOOLS BUT WITH MOST FAVORING NEAR TO
BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE STATE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2,
EXCLUDING THE NORTHEAST. AS POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PROGRESS
EASTWARD, SO DO THE STRONGEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BROAD
70% AREA FOR ABOVE NORMAL IS FAVORED FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EAST TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND GULF COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED OVER PARTS
OF THE NORTHEAST WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER EASTERN CANADA.
WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING APPROACHING THE WEST COAST, THERE ARE REDUCED CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN ALASKA, BELOW NORMAL REMAINS
FORECAST OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS
ABOVE NORMAL IS FORECAST OVER NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. IN HAWAII, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE STATE.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FORECAST FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WITH DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE STILL QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION
INTO THIS REGION. THE STRONG PROBABILITIES ARE LIKELY DUE TO THE LOWER
CLIMATOLOGIES IN THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS
WHERE BOTH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATE ABOVE
NORMAL. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST AS
A RESULT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. A
SECOND AREA OF NEAR NORMAL IN THE CONUS IS FAVORED FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE UNCALIBRATED PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FAVOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. IN ALASKA, ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL FAVORED OVER THE MAINLAND. IN HAWAII, NO REST FOR THE WEARY, WITH
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION STILL FAVORED OVER THE STATE WITH THE STRONGEST
CHANCES FOR THE BIG ISLAND.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 38% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 32% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), BASED
ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070313 - 20070318 - 20250325 - 20070308 - 20220316
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070314 - 20070309 - 20030329 - 19890403 - 20250325
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 27 - 31 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 29 - APR 04, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN N N RHODE IS B N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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