454
FOUS30 KWBC 220012
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
812 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
DAY 1
VALID 01Z SUN MAR 22 2026 - 12Z SUN MAR 22 2026
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
CHENARD
DAY 2
VALID 12Z SUN MAR 22 2026 - 12Z MON MAR 23 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN
NEW YORK STATE...
LATEST GUIDANCE (INCLUDING CAMS) DEPICT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN ONLY A MODESTLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
(AROUND 1 INCH PW) AND FAST STORM SPEEDS FROM STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THE STORMS WILL, HOWEVER, FORM ALONG AN INITIATING BOUNDARY
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, SUPPORTING AREAS OF
LOCALIZED TRAINING. AREAS OF 1-2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED,
AND SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT TIMEFRAME (<3 HOURS).
GIVEN LOW FFG, SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION IN URBAN AREAS
(PHILADELPHIA TO NEW YORK CITY), AND LOCALLY SENSITIVE LOCALES IN
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA/FAR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, INTRODUCED
LOW/MARGINAL PROBABILITIES FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF.
COOK
DAY 3
VALID 12Z MON MAR 23 2026 - 12Z TUE MAR 24 2026
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
COOK/ROTH
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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