991
FXUS02 KWBC 220800
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
VALID 12Z WED MAR 25 2026 - 12Z SUN MAR 29 2026
...ANOMALOUS EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL U.S. RETURNS MIDWEEK...
..OVERVIEW
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE UNITED STATES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOLLOWED BY RAIN AND SNOW TO THE NORTHEASTERN
QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY. A PROMINENT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
EXPAND EASTWARD, CARRYING ANOMALOUS WARM TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED FIRE POTENTIAL TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. MID-WEEK.
RIDGE BEGINS TO DEGRADE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THERE'S GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF THE
MID-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME MODELS ALSO SIGNAL ONE UNIFIED SHORTWAVE
AND OTHERS DEPICT A PAIR OF THEM.
A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FAVORING THE AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND AI GUIDANCE
WERE USED ON DAYS 3 AND 4, FOLLOWED BY A DETERMINISTIC
EURO/ENSEMBLE MEANS FAVORED BLEND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTING INTO THE CANADIAN MERITIME WILL
PRODUCE SOME SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY SNOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL U.S.
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
KEBEDE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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