137
FXUS02 KWBC 220818
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
418 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
VALID 12Z WED MAR 25 2026 - 12Z SUN MAR 29 2026
...ANOMALOUS EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL U.S. RETURNS MIDWEEK...
..OVERVIEW
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FOLLOWED BY RAIN AND SNOW TO PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY. A PROMINENT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
EXPAND EASTWARD, CARRYING ANOMALOUS WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
FIRE POTENTIAL TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. MID-WEEK. THE
WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO DEGRADE DUE TO AN APPROACHING PACIFIC
TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THERE'S GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF THE
MID-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME MODELS ALSO SIGNAL ONE UNIFIED
SHORTWAVE AND OTHERS DEPICT A PAIR OF THEM.
A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FAVORING THE AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND AI GUIDANCE
WERE USED ON DAYS 3 AND 4, FOLLOWED BY A DETERMINISTIC
EURO/ENSEMBLE MEANS FAVORED BLEND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME WILL
PRODUCE SOME SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY SNOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE
INTERIOR NORTHEAST/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT, SPREADING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST, NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC.
AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL U.S.
THROUGH MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE 30-40
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS TIME. MILD TEMPERATURES, LOW
DEWPOINTS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF FIRES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
KEBEDE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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