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FXUS06 KWBC 221902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN MARCH 22 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 28 - APR 01, 2026
THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS.
STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME. OVER EASTERN CANADA, A STRONG AREA OF
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FAVORED. WEAK TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER
ALASKA AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND NEAR HAWAII. MEANWHILE, STRONG POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER EASTERN SIBERIA.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS FOR THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE
CONUS, EXCLUDING THE NORTHEAST. THE STRONGEST CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WHERE CHANCES EXCEED 80% OVER PARTS OF ARIZONA WITH A
BROADER 70% CHANCE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS. CHANCES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DECREASE OVER THE NORTHWEST DISPLACED FROM THE STRONGEST
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE REGION. IN THE EAST, A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING AND TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM OVER TIME.
THERE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WHERE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA MAY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE NORTHERLY
FLOW. IN ALASKA, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE WITH ABOVE FAVORED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR OAHU AND KAUAI.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST RELATIVE TO
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK WITH TOOLS TRENDING TOWARDS REDUCED PROBABILITIES
ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED. THE REFORECAST GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL BUT THIS IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF LOW
CLIMATOLOGIES IN THE REGION. UNCALIBRATED PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE SHOWS SPORADIC
PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. ANY AREA THAT RECEIVES PRECIPITATION MAY REACH THE
ABOVE NORMAL THRESHOLD BUT IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
BE AT THIS TIME. 40-50% CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR
PARTS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. THERE ARE ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHERE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. A
SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL IS FAVORED ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ATTACHED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT TOOLS ARE NOT INDICATING A
PARTICULARLY WET BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. ALONG THE WEST COAST, THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH IS INFLUENCING THE REGION MORE TODAY THAN IN PRIOR FORECASTS AND THIS IS
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE
NORMAL IS FORECAST HERE. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE REGION
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. IN ALASKA, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE MAINLAND WITH NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED
IN SOUTHEAST AND THE NORTH SLOPE. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS
FAVORED WITH THE CHANCES INCREASING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), BASED
ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 30 - APR 05, 2026
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO
GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE 6-10 DAY AND WEEK-2 PERIOD. POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING WEEK-2 WITH WEAK TROUGHING
DEVELOPING JUST INLAND OF THE WEST COAST DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL WEST COAST TROUGH
AMONG THE TOOLS. THE ECENS PROGRESSES THE FEATURE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
EARLIER AND FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER, THE GEFS IS A BIT SLOWER AND
MAINTAINS THE STRONGEST TROUGHING SIGNATURE OFF THE WEST COAST. THE CMCE SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE. THEREFORE, THE WEEK-2 MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND FEATURES THE WEAK
TROUGH AXIS RIGHT ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH STRETCHES NORTH BACK INTO
ALASKA BUT REMAINS MUCH WEAKER THAN IN PRIOR WEEKS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES REMAIN FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. IN
HAWAII, THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE TOOLS BUT WITH MOST FAVORING
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE STATE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2,
EXCLUDING THE NORTHEAST. AS POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PROGRESS
EASTWARD, SO DO THE STRONGEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BROAD
70% AREA FOR ABOVE NORMAL IS FAVORED OVER THE PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
MIDWEST, AND SOUTHEAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED OVER PARTS OF
MAINE WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING APPROACHING THE WEST COAST, THERE ARE REDUCED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND NEAR NORMAL IS FAVORED
OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN ALASKA, BELOW NORMAL REMAINS FORECAST
OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL
IS FORECAST OVER NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE STATE.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD, HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE LOW IN MOST PLACES. MOST TOOLS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BUT THERE IS
A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE THE FORMATION WOULD OCCUR AND ANY
TRACK THE SYSTEM WOULD TAKE. THIS ELEVATES CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THIS TIME, THE STRONGEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FORECAST FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH CALIBRATED GUIDANCE STILL QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THIS REGION BUT UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. THE STRONG PROBABILITIES ARE LIKELY DUE TO THE LOWER
CLIMATOLOGIES IN THE REGION. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN THE WEST, AS WELL, WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION INCREASING CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
IN ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FAVORED OVER THE MAINLAND. IN HAWAII, NO REST FOR THE
WEARY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION STILL FAVORED OVER THE STATE WITH THE
STRONGEST CHANCES FOR THE BIG ISLAND.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 38% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 32% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), BASED
ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE
TOOLS.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070312 - 20070317 - 20070307 - 20150401 - 20220316
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070313 - 20070308 - 20070318 - 19890403 - 20150401
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 28 - APR 01, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 30 - APR 05, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N N MAINE B N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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