196
FXUS02 KWBC 221937
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
337 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
VALID 12Z WED MAR 25 2026 - 12Z SUN MAR 29 2026
...ANOMALOUS EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL U.S. RENEWS MIDWEEK...
..OVERVIEW
AMPLE SHORTWAVE ENERGIES WILL EJECT OUT OF A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY
RAIN AND SNOW FROM PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER
OF THE COUNTRY LATER WEEK. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIG BROADLY
SOUTHWARD IN EARNEST IN THE WAKE OF TRAILING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A PROMINENT SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD,
CARRYING ANOMALOUS WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED FIRE POTENTIAL
TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO MID-LATE WEEK. THE WESTERN RIDGE
BEGINS TO DEGRADE DUE TO AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH LATE WEEK.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THERE'S GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE FLOW EVOLUTION
OVER THE LOWER 48 AND VICINITY DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IN A
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY.
A GUIDANCE BLEND SEEMS TO OFFER A GOOD FORECAST BASIS WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND WITH PACIFIC ENERGY WORKING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER
RIDGE IN PARTICULAR HEADING INTO/THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. COMPATIBLE
ENSEMBLE MEANS SEEM THE BETTER WAY TO GO AT THESE LONGER FRAMES AS
THEY ARE MORE CYCLE TO CYCLE CONSISTENT WITH THE MORE PREDICTABLE
DETAILS BEST IN LINE WITH MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE AND THE NBM.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME WILL
PRODUCE SOME SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
AND INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD
FRONT, SPREADING ACROSS THE MIDWEST, NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MODERATE RAINS AND
SOME WINTRY WEATHER SLIDING SOUTHWARD WITH THE COOLING CENTRAL TO
EASTERN U.S. WAVY FRONT NEXT WEEKEND WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PASSAGES. THERE MAY ALSO BE SPOTTY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE UPPER RIDGE WITH DRYLINE AND/OR FRONTAL
APPROACH THAT WOULD BE SLOW TO TRANSLATE IF THEY MANAGE TO DEVELOP.
AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL U.S.
THROUGH MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE 30-40
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS TIME. MILD TEMPERATURES, LOW
DEWPOINTS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF FIRES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
KEBEDE/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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