088
FOUS30 KWBC 230059
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
859 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
DAY 1
VALID 01Z MON MAR 23 2026 - 12Z MON MAR 23 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE NEW YORK CITY METRO...
FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A VERY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
RISK CONTINUING FROM PORTIONS OF IN/OH, ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PA AND INTO CENTRAL TO NORTHERN NJ. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES
TONIGHT SHOULD BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF IN/OH AND WV WHERE INSTABILITY
IS GREATER. RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE ACTIVITY FROM IL INTO
OH IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE, AND THUS EVEN WITH
QUICK CELL MOTIONS RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY LOCALLY EXCEED 1" IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WE DID EXPAND THE MARGINAL RISK A BIT FARTHER
SOUTHWEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION MOVING
ACROSS THESE AREAS. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF AS YOU GET FARTHER EAST
INTO PA AND NJ, SO RAINFALL RATES ARE UNLIKELY TO BE AS HIGH HERE.
ALTHOUGH MULTIPLE ROUNDS SHOULD STILL RESULT IN A SWATH OF 1-2" OF
RAIN. OVERALL, LOOKING AT A RAINFALL RATE DRIVEN ISOLATED (AND
LOWER END) FLASH FLOOD RISK OVER THE SOUTHWEST EXTENT OF THE
MARGINAL RISK AREA, AND MORE OF A DURATION DRIVEN LOW END FLOOD
RISK ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF THE RISK (GENERALLY CENTRAL PA
TOWARDS NYC.
CHENARD
DAY 2
VALID 12Z MON MAR 23 2026 - 12Z TUE MAR 24 2026
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
WEGMAN/SNELL
DAY 3
VALID 12Z TUE MAR 24 2026 - 12Z WED MAR 25 2026
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON STATE, SPECIFICALLY THE OLYMPIC AND
CASCADES MOUNTAINS, WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL MARGINAL
RISK INTRODUCTION WITH FUTURE UPDATES. A FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
WILL MAKE FOR A BRIEF TIME (12-HOUR) OF HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
WHILE THIS WOULD NORMALLY NOT BE NEARLY LONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING, GIVEN THERE IS ONGOING RIVER FLOODING FROM THE LAST
EVENT, AND BOTH SOILS AND STREAMS/CREEKS ARE FULL, THIS ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE RENEWED ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
WEGMAN/SNELL
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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