544
FXUS02 KWBC 230800
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
VALID 12Z THU MAR 26 2026 - 12Z MON MAR 30 2026
..OVERVIEW
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMANATING FROM MEAN TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS WEEK
BEFORE AMPLIFYING OVER THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL PROMOTE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST, BEFORE
AN EAST PACIFIC TROUGH SHIFTS THE RIDGE EAST AND SUPPRESSES WARM
AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AS OUTLINED IN THE OVERVIEW BEGINNING LATE
THIS WEEK. THERE'S A TREND TOWARD A SLOWER SHORTWAVE PROPAGATION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER MID-TO-LATE THIS WEEK. THUS, QPF HAS
TRENDED UPWARD OVER THE MIDWEST AS A RESULT. ENSEMBLE MEMBER
UNCERTAINTY PICKS UP OVER THE SPEED OF THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND, AS WELL AS THE SPEED/TIMING OF
THE APPROACHING EAST PACIFIC TROUGH.
A GENERAL MODEL BLEND CONSISTING OF THE AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND
AI GUIDANCE WERE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAPTURE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC
FEATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE INTRODUCED
ON DAY 5, AND QUICKLY MAKE UP A MAJORITY OF THE BLEND ON DAYS 6
AND 7.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME WILL
PRODUCE SOME SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
AND INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD
FRONT, SPREADING ACROSS THE MIDWEST, NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MODERATE RAINS AND
SOME WINTRY WEATHER SLIDING SOUTHWARD WITH THE COOLING CENTRAL TO
EASTERN U.S. WAVY FRONT NEXT WEEKEND WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PASSAGES. THERE MAY ALSO BE SPOTTY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE UPPER RIDGE WITH DRYLINE AND/OR FRONTAL
APPROACH THAT WOULD BE SLOW TO TRANSLATE IF THEY MANAGE TO DEVELOP.
AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL U.S.
THROUGH MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE 30-40
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS TIME. MILD TEMPERATURES, LOW
DEWPOINTS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF FIRES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
KEBEDE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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