505
FXUS02 KWBC 230843
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
443 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
VALID 12Z THU MAR 26 2026 - 12Z MON MAR 30 2026
..OVERVIEW
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROPELLED FORWARD BY A POTENT MID-LEVEL LOW,
CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER LATE THIS WEEK BEFORE AMPLIFYING OVER THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. UPPER- LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROMOTE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST, BEFORE AN EAST PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHES THE
RIDGE AXIS EAST WHILE SUPPRESSING WARM AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN AS OUTLINED IN THE OVERVIEW BEGINNING LATE
THIS WEEK. THERE'S A TREND TOWARD A SLOWER SHORTWAVE PROPAGATION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER MID-TO-LATE THIS WEEK. THEREFORE, QPF
TRENDED UPWARD OVER THE MIDWEST. ENSEMBLE MEMBER UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES REGARDING THE SPEED/TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST, AS WELL AS THE SPEED/TIMING OF THE
APPROACHING EAST PACIFIC TROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
A GENERAL MODEL BLEND CONSISTING OF THE AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND
AI GUIDANCE WERE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAPTURE THE PREDOMINANT
SYNOPTIC FEATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
INTRODUCED ON DAY 5, AND MAKE UP A MAJORITY OF THE BLEND ON DAYS 6
AND 7.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES
WILL PRODUCE SOME SHALLOW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRE-
FRONTAL RAIN AND POST-FRONTAL SNOW TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
TO THE SOUTH, SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXTEND DOWN INTO THE MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. A SLOWER
TRENDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, WHERE A MARGINAL
RISK (AT LEAST 5% CHANCE) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT IS SUPPORTED BY AN
EFI SIGNAL FOR EXTREME INSTABILITY AND AN INSTABILITY + SHEAR
COMPOSITE OVER PORTIONS OF INDIANA, OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
RECENT STORMS MAY MAKE SOILS MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
SOME LIGHT WINTRY POST-FRONTAL PRECIP MAY MIX IN OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL GENERATE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.
REMNANTS OF LAST WEEK'S HEAT WAVE WILL LINGER OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY BEFORE RETREATING TO THE
SOUTHWEST BENEATH AN AMPLIFYING WESTERN RIDGE AND SWEEPING SURFACE
COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL U.S.. WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE MIDWEST ON
THURSDAY.
KEBEDE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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