662
FXCA20 KWBC 231634
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1233 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 23 MARCH 2026 AT 1635 UTC:
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA...
ON MONDAY, A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE DECAYING OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, AND HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO A TROUGH BY THE EVENING. IT WILL BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL, ACROSS
PUERTO RICO, A PREVALENT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND WILL PROMOTE THE
ENHANCEMENT OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SECTOR OF THE
ISLAND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 15MM
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER, BY TUESDAY NIGHT, A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
MOISTURE POOLING IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND ITS AXIS. IT WILL BEGIN TO
PROPAGATE WESTWARD WITH THE EASTERLY TRADES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND WILL ARRIVE INTO HISPANIOLA BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
TROUGH WILL FAVOR MODERATE TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE ACROSS PUERTO RICO, EXPECT MODERATE TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A SECONDARY SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO DEVELOP FROM THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT, WEST OF HISPANIOLA, AND IT IS ANTICIPATED
TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD WITH THE EASTERLY TRADES. THE AXIS OF THIS
TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS JAMAICA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY,
WHEN IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO GAIN DEFINITION. IT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL STRUGGLE TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING
WESTWARD, REMAINING SEMI-STATIONARY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING
MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL LOSE ITS
DEFINITION BY THURSDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD, MOIST AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE PROMINENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH.
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION IMPACTS, EXPECT MODERATE TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ACROSS JAMAICA FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEAST NICARAGUA,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE COASTS
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH.
THEREAFTER, A PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN THIS REGION, ENABLING THE ENVIRONMENT
TO REMAIN MOIST, WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE REACHING
50MM. DESPITE THE FACT, THE MOST INTENSE PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ALONG THE COASTS AND THE HEAVIEST SHOULD
REMAIN OFFCOAST. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT A JET STREAK MAX,
UPPER DIFFLUENCE, AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. REGARDLESS, ELEVATED TOTAL PRECIPITATION
MAXIMA IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHEAST NICARAGUA.
ACROSS TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA...
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT BUT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN
BY THE PRESENCE OF INSTABILITY IN THE REGION, DIURNAL HEATING, AND
LOCAL EFFECTS. THUS, MODERATE TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EAST OF THE ANDES, THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AMAZON BASIN. IN
PARTICULAR, THE MID-LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE MORE EASTERLY BY
WEDNESDAY, FAVORING THE TRANSPORT OF MOIST TROPICAL AIR FROM THE
ATLANTIC INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE CONTINENT. THUS, THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMAZON
BASIN, A SERIES OF LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WILL BE PRESENT IN THIS
REGION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, FAVORING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
VERTICAL ASCENT. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PRESENT THAT
WILL SUSTAIN UPPER DIVERGENCE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR
MODERATE TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE (ITCZ) WILL CONTINUE TO CONVERGE INTO THE AMAZON DELTA AND
GUIANAS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND
FLOW PATTERN WILL ALSO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AMAZON DELTA AND
SOUTH OF THE GUIANAS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WHICH WILL SUPPORT
UPPER DIVERGENCE. EXPECT MODERATE TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA FOR
THE NEXT THREE DAYS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS. THE REST OF
THE TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICAN REGION WILL SEE SEASONAL CONDITIONS,
WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DAILY.
TINOCO-MORALES...(WPC)
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