749
FXUS06 KWBC 231902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON MARCH 23 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 29 - APR 02, 2026
THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS.
STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME. OVER EASTERN CANADA, A STRONG AREA OF
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FAVORED. WEAK TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER
ALASKA AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO NEAR HAWAII. MEANWHILE, STRONG POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER EASTERN SIBERIA INTO WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS FOR THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE
CONUS, EXCLUDING THE NORTHEAST. THE STRONGEST CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WHERE CHANCES EXCEED 70% OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN, FOUR
CORNERS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DECREASE OVER THE NORTHWEST DISPLACED FROM THE STRONGEST 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AND WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE REGION. IN THE EAST, TOOLS ARE HOLDING
ON TO COOLER AIR DURING THE PERIOD RELATIVE TO PRIOR FORECASTS. THIS HAS LED TO
MORE NEAR-NORMAL BEING FAVORED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COASTS. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM OVER TIME AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST. THERE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS WHERE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA MAY CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE NORTHERLY FLOW. IN ALASKA, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED
FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE WITH ABOVE FAVORED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR OAHU AND
KAUAI.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CONUS. IN THE FOUR CORNERS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY THE CALIBRATED GUIDANCE
IS HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL BUT THIS IS
LIKELY THE RESULT OF LOW CLIMATOLOGIES IN THE REGION. UNCALIBRATED
PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE SPORADIC PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. ANY
AREA THAT RECEIVES PRECIPITATION MAY REACH THE ABOVE NORMAL THRESHOLD BUT IT IS
UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE AT THIS TIME. 40-50% CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR PARTS OF ARIZONA AND UTAH EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE ARE ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. ALONG THE
WEST COAST, THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS INFLUENCING THE REGION AND THIS IS BRINGING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL IS
FORECAST HERE. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. IN ALASKA, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN MAINLAND WITH NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED IN
SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FAVORED WITH THE CHANCES INCREASING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), BASED
ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 31 - APR 06, 2026
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING WEEK-2 WITH WEAK TROUGHING
PROGRESSING INLAND OVER THE WEST DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL WEST COAST TROUGH AMONG
THE TOOLS. THE ECENS PROGRESSES THE FEATURE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS EARLIER AND
DISSIPATES THE TROUGH BY THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. HOWEVER, THE GEFS IS LESS
PROGRESSIVE AND MAINTAINS TROUGH DURING MUCH OF WEEK-2. THE WEEK-2 MANUAL
HEIGHT BLEND FEATURES A WEAK TROUGH AXIS RIGHT ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH
STRETCHES NORTH BACK INTO ALASKA WITH STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
FAVORED OVER WESTERN ALASKA. IN HAWAII, THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE
TOOLS BUT WITH MOST FAVORING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
STATE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2,
EXCLUDING THE NORTHEAST. AS POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PROGRESS
EASTWARD, SO DO THE STRONGEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BROAD
70% AREA FOR ABOVE NORMAL IS FAVORED OVER THE PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
MIDWEST, AND SOUTHEAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED OVER PARTS OF
MAINE WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER EASTERN CANADA. MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE WEST, THERE ARE REDUCED CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND NEAR NORMAL IS FAVORED
OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN ALASKA, BELOW NORMAL REMAINS FORECAST
OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE STATE.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD, HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE LOW IN MOST PLACES. MOST TOOLS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BUT THERE IS
A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE THE FORMATION WOULD OCCUR AND ANY
TRACK THE SYSTEM WOULD TAKE. THIS ELEVATES CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THIS TIME, THE STRONGEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FORECAST FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH CALIBRATED GUIDANCE STILL QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THIS REGION BUT UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. THE STRONG PROBABILITIES ARE LIKELY DUE TO THE LOWER
CLIMATOLOGIES IN THE REGION. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN THE WEST WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
REGION INCREASING CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER. IN ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL FAVORED OVER THE MAINLAND. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
STILL FAVORED OVER THE STATE WITH THE STRONGEST CHANCES FOR THE BIG ISLAND.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 38% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 32% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), BASED
ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE
TOOLS.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070312 - 20070317 - 20150401 - 20070307 - 20220316
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070313 - 20070308 - 20070318 - 20150401 - 20250325
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 29 - APR 02, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B B
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 31 - APR 06, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N N MAINE B N
MASS N N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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