656
FXUS02 KWBC 231922
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
322 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
VALID 12Z THU MAR 26 2026 - 12Z MON MAR 30 2026
..OVERVIEW
AMPLE SHORTWAVE ENERGIES PROPELLED FORWARD BY A POTENT MID-UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. TIER LATER THIS WEEK BEFORE AMPLIFYING OVER THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND. HEAT FOCUS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL BE
REPLACED BY COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SET TO DROP SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
ALONG WITH ENHANCED POST-FRONTAL WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
STILL PROMOTE LINGERING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE LOSING INFLUENCE NEXT WEEK.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
GUIDANCE CLUSTERING HAS IMPROVED THROUGH MEDIUM RANGE TIME FRAMES,
BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVERALL TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH SMALLER SCALE IMPULSE TIMING WITHIN
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AND LEAD FRONTAL/QPF AXIS PROGRESSION ALONG
WITH PACIFIC SYSTEM ENERGIES OFF THE NORTHWEST AND ENERGY WORKING
INLAND INTO THE SOUTHWEST. A FAVORED MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN/MACHINE
LEARNING GUIDANCE BLEND SEEMS TO PROVIDE A SOLID FORECAST BASIS IN
LINE WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS AND WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL
PRODUCE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST
AND NEW ENGLAND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WAVY FRONTAL SYSTEMS
FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRE-FRONTAL
RAINS AND POST-FRONTAL SNOWS WITH COOLING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TO THE SOUTH, SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXTEND DOWN INTO THE MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, WHERE A MARGINAL RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT IS SUPPORTED BY AN EFI SIGNAL FOR EXTREME
INSTABILITY AND AN INSTABILITY + SHEAR COMPOSITE OVER PORTIONS OF
INDIANA, OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. RECENT STORMS MAY MAKE
SOILS MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. SPC ALSO SHOWS A THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO MONITOR. SOME LIGHT WINTRY POST-FRONTAL
PRECIP MAY ALSO MIX IN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, MID- ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
GENERATE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY
BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.
A HEAT WAVE WITH WIDESPREAD RECORD POTENTIAL WILL LINGER OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN U.S. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE RETREATING TO THE
SOUTHWEST BENEATH WESTERN UPPER RIDGING AS A SWEEPING SURFACE COLD
FRONT DIGS ROBUSTLY DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S..
EXPECT SOME SOUTHWEST HEAT MODERATION LATER PERIOD AS THE UPPER
RIDGE LOSES INFLUENCE AND SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH RETURN FLOW.
FARTHER NORTH, LESS CERTAIN PACIFIC SYSTEM ENERGIES SETTLING OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION ONSHORE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
KEBEDE/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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