638
FXUS02 KWBC 240801
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
401 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VALID 12Z FRI MAR 27 2026 - 12Z TUE MAR 31 2026
..OVERVIEW
MEAN TROUGHING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SHED LOBES OF
VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN U.S.
RIDGE WILL PHASE WITH ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES AND
AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. THE
SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING ENTIRELY TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LESS CERTAIN PACIFIC TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO THE WEST NEXT WEEK.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY
EMERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE SPEED OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHS
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE ALSO SMALLER
SCALE DIFFERENCES IN TROUGH AMPLITUDES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/WESTERN
U.S. BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.
A GENERAL MODEL BLEND CONSISTING OF THE AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND
AI GUIDANCE CAPTURED THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON DAYS 3 AND 4 WELL.
THERE'S GOOD CLUSTERING ON THE TIMING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE AND SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE. ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
INTRODUCED TO THE BLEND ON DAY 5, BUT DON'T MAKE UP A MAJORITY OF
THE BLEND UNTIL DAY 7, WHEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WEST BECOMES TOO
MUCH FOR THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE TO RESOLVE.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY. SOME PRE-FRONTAL RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE MIDWEST TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
FOLLOWED BY POST-FRONTAL LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF COOL DRY CONDITIONS TO MUCH
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY.
KEBEDE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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