852
FXUS02 KWBC 240831
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
431 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VALID 12Z FRI MAR 27 2026 - 12Z TUE MAR 31 2026
..OVERVIEW
MEAN TROUGHING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SHED LOBES OF
VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN U.S.
RIDGE WILL PHASE WITH ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES AND
AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. THE
WESTERN RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BEGINNING
LATE THIS WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE
ARRIVAL OF A PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH MOVES INTO THE WEST NEXT WEEK.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY
EMERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE SPEED OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHS
BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
A GENERAL MODEL BLEND CONSISTING OF THE AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND
AI GUIDANCE CAPTURED THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON DAYS 3 AND 4 WELL.
THERE'S GOOD CLUSTERING ON THE TIMING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE AND SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE ON THOSE DAYS. ENSEMBLE
MEANS ARE INTRODUCED TO THE BLEND ON DAY 5, BUT DON'T MAKE UP A
MAJORITY OF THE BLEND UNTIL DAY 7, WHEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WEST
BECOMES TOO MUCH FOR THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE TO RESOLVE/AGREE ON.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY. SOME PRE-FRONTAL RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE MIDWEST TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
FOLLOWED BY POST-FRONTAL LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BEGINNING FRIDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND, SPREADING WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WILL POSSIBLY CONTINUE TO TIE AND
SET RECORDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE NEXT WEEK BENEATH THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
DESPITE THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF THIS WEST COAST TROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WILL
REDIRECT AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST PACIFIC AIRMASS BACK INTO THE
SOUTHWEST IN WHAT MAY RESEMBLE A MONSOONAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.
KEBEDE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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