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NOUS41 KWBC 241400
PNSWSH
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT 26-22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS SILVER SPRING MD
1000 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
TO: SUBSCRIBERS:
-NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE
-EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK
-NOAAPORT
OTHER NWS PARTNERS, USERS AND EMPLOYEES
FROM: JAMIE RHOME, DEPUTY DIRECTOR
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
SUBJECT: SOLICITING COMMENTS ON THE EXPERIMENTAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE TRACK AND ERROR CONE GRAPHICS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER THROUGH NOVEMBER 30, 2026
EFFECTIVE ON OR ABOUT MAY 15, 2026, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER (NHC) WILL PROVIDE EXPERIMENTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC)
TRACK AND ERROR CONE GRAPHICS (I.E., CONE GRAPHICS) THAT USE A
DIFFERENT METHODOLOGY TO CONSTRUCT THE ERROR CONE.
SINCE 2007, THE NHC TC CONE GRAPHIC HAS BEEN FORMED BY
CONNECTING A SET OF CIRCLES AT EACH FORECAST POINT. THESE
CIRCLES ARE BASED ON THE 67TH PERCENTILE OF THE NHC ABSOLUTE
TRACK ERRORS OVER THE PREVIOUS FIVE YEARS. IN 2026, AN
EXPERIMENTAL TC CONE GRAPHIC WILL BE CONSTRUCTED BASED ON AN
ELLIPSE AT EACH FORECAST POINT THAT IS CALCULATED USING THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF THE NHC ALONG- AND CROSS-TRACK ERRORS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FIVE YEARS. THE EXPERIMENTAL CONE IS THEN FORMED BY
SMOOTHLY CONNECTING THE AREA SWEPT OUT BY THESE ELLIPSES. THIS
APPROACH SEEKS TO MORE ACCURATELY REFLECT THE TRACK ERROR
CHARACTERISTICS AT EACH FORECAST TIME.SINCE THE CENTER OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WOULD BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN EACH ELLIPSE
90% OF THE TIME, THE EXPERIMENTAL CONE WILL REPRESENT THE LIKELY
TRACK AREA OF THE CENTER OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
WHEN THERE IS AN ACTIVE SYSTEM, EXAMPLES OF THE EXPERIMENTAL
CONE GRAPHIC FROM NHC CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING UNIFORM
RESOURCE LOCATOR (URL):
ATLANTIC: HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT#.SHTML?EXPCONE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP#.SHTML?EXPCONE
CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP#.SHTML?EXPCONE
WHERE # IS A SINGLE DIGIT 1-5, OR “BIN NUMBER”.
THE EXPERIMENTAL CONE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH EACH NHC ADVISORY
OR SPECIAL ADVISORY. THIS EXPERIMENTAL CONE WILL BE ISSUED IN
ADDITION TO THE OPERATIONAL CONE. WHEN AVAILABLE, THE
EXPERIMENTAL CONE GRAPHIC CAN ALSO BE FOUND THROUGH THE
HURRICANES.GOV MAIN PAGE BY SELECTING THE CONE GRAPHIC THUMBNAIL
THAT WILL TAKE THE USER TO THE OPERATIONAL CONE GRAPHIC PAGE.
ON THAT PAGE, THERE WILL BE A LINK TO THE EXPERIMENTAL CONE
GRAPHIC.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE EXPERIMENTAL CONE GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE
AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/EXPERIMENTAL/CONE/
THE NWS IS SOLICITING COMMENTS ON THIS EXPERIMENTAL VERSION OF
THE CONE GRAPHIC FROM NHC THROUGH NOVEMBER 30, 2026. PLEASE
PROVIDE FEEDBACK THROUGH THE NWS SURVEY AT:
HTTPS://WWW.SURVEYMONKEY.COM/R/PROPOSEDCHANGESTOTHETROPICALCYCLO
NECONEGRAPHICS_2026
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS, PLEASE CONTACT:
NWS TROPICAL PROGRAM
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
EMAIL: TROPICAL.PROGRAM@NOAA.GOV
NATIONAL PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS ARE ONLINE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NOTIFICATION/
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