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FXCA20 KWBC 241714
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
113 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 24 MARCH 2026 AT 1715 UTC:
ACROSS MEXICO, CENTRAL AMERICA, AND THE CARIBBEAN...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE EASTWARD
STARTING TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS MEXICO
AND WILL SUPPORT A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY. EXPECT INTENSIFIED UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF JET STREAK MAXES ACROSS MEXICO THROUGH THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IN MEXICO, EXPECT THE MOST
INTENSE PRECIPITATION IMPACTS TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY, WHEN THERE WILL
BE THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE IN THE REGION AND WHEN
THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL REGIME WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE. THERE WILL
BE A DECREASING TREND IN DAILY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
REGION, THOUGH DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
LIKELY.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA, THERE IS CURRENTLY A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH THAT HAS AN AXIS NEAR 80W AND IS ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR 82W
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS AND
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. HOWEVER, THE MOST FAVORABLE MID-TO-UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OFF-COAST, WHERE MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL
SPEED DIVERGENCE WILL BE PRESENT. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE TOO. IF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE COAST, THEN PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE GREATER ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. IN THE LOW LEVELS, THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MEANDER IN THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY,
SUPPORTING THE INFLUX OF NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. THIS WIND
FLOW PATTERN WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WITH
RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION, CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY ALONG THE COASTS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE
LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS DEFINITION. MODERATE
TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ARE LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS AND
NORTHEAST NICARAGUA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THERE MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS. BY THURSDAY, THE REMNANTS OF THE
LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL AND WESTERN HONDURAS. THEREAFTER, LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES
WILL DOMINATE THE WIND REGIME.
ANOTHER REGION OF INTEREST IS THE EASTERN GREATER ANTILLES. THE
REMNANTS OF A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION INTO A LOW
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT THREE DAYS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE DEVELOPING BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THIS TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ITS AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL BE TRAVERSING THE ISLAND THROUGH THE
DAY. BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE TROUGH WILL BE ARRIVING INTO JAMAICA
AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA, THOUGH ITS STRUCTURE WILL BE DISORGANIZED
BY THIS PERIOD. IN ITS WAKE, LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL BECOME
DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION, THE
MOST INTENSE PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL OCCUR DURING THE PASSAGE TROUGH. PRECIPITATION
PROCESSES WILL ALSO BE REINFORCED BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE, LOCAL
EFFECTS, AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. MEANWHILE ON THURSDAY, THE PRESENCE
OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR HISPANIOLA WILL FAVOR
VERTICAL ASCENT ACROSS THE ISLAND. AT THE LOW LEVELS, EASTERLY
WINDS WILL SUPPORT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT,
YIELDING MODERATE TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA.
IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA...
THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE
PACIFIC COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. A
PANAMANIAN LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL GAIN DEFINITION, THOUGH LOW LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN WEAK AND WILL NOT EXCEED FIVE KNOTS. THUS,
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE PRIMARILY
DRIVEN BY LOCAL EFFECTS, THE DIURNAL CYCLE, AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT
YIELDING MODEST TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. EAST OF THE ANDES, A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT OVER
THE CENTRAL AMAZON BASIN AND IT WILL SUPPORT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE REGION AS WELL AS A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS REGION WILL SEE ENHANCED TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE AMAZON BASIN AND
SURROUNDING REGIONS, MID-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DOMINATE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE INTERIOR OF
THE AMAZON BASIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY.
TINOCO-MORALES...(WPC)
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