763
FXUS06 KWBC 241908
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE MARCH 24 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 30 - APR 03, 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A FAIRLY COMPLEX
500-HPA FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. A PAIR OF RIDGES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS EASTERN SIBERIA AND SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS, RESPECTIVELY. DOWNSTREAM,
ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS FORECAST NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. THIS TROUGH
HAS TRENDED STRONGER RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY AND IS NOW EXPECTED TO REACH THE
WEST COAST AND POTENTIALLY MOVE INLAND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. EXPANSIVE
RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER,
DEEP ANOMALOUS TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO MOVE
OUT, WHICH WOULD PREVENT THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE OVER THE CONUS FROM OVERSPREADING
THE NORTHEAST. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST IN THE VICINITY OF HAWAII,
FAVORING AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR A BROAD AREA OF THE CONUS,
ENCOMPASSING MOST AREAS FROM THE ROCKIES EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST COASTS. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE) OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND ADJACENT AREAS. THE PREDICTED MEAN POSITION OF THE
EXPANSIVE RIDGE OVER THE CONUS IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THESE REGIONS. CONVERSELY, CONFIDENCE IS REDUCED ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
VICINITY. TODAY'S TREND TOWARD A STRONGER TROUGH HAS DRAMATICALLY REDUCED
CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS WEST OF THE ROCKIES RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST, AS THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN ANOMALOUS RIDGING
OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, CLOSER TO THE
ANOMALOUS TROUGH PREDICTED OVER EASTERN CANADA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED ENHANCED NORTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR
NORTHWESTERN ALASKA, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF HAWAII. DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL SSTS
OBSERVED IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC, ANOMALOUS TROUGHING AND AN ACTIVE PATTERN MAY
KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN.
CONFIDENCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN TO AFFECT MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS AS A PREDICTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY HAS TRENDED
STRONGER. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXCEED 50 PERCENT FROM CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR THE
GREAT LAKES, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND ADJACENT AREAS,
AS POTENTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF AND PREDICTED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES COMBINE TO PROMOTE AN
ACTIVE PATTERN. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED
FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, INFLUENCED BY NEARBY
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED
FOR NORTHWESTERN ALASKA, DUE TO PREDICTED MEAN LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, DUE TO PREDICTED ANOMALOUS
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 01 - 07 2026
DURING WEEK-2, THE ANOMALOUS TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND. AS THIS TROUGH PUSHES INLAND, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
(POTENTIALLY STRONG) IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NORTHERN OR CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM, THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST. THIS EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE EAST COAST, AS THE DEEP TROUGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA AHEAD OF A RIDGE PREDICTED OVER EASTERN SIBERIA. ABOVE
NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE ALEUTIANS AS WELL AS THE WESTERN
MAINLAND, WITH NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS MORE LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE. MEAN CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII WITH STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW PREDICTED AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS COMBINATION IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE A CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRD OF THE
CONUS AS AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE MOVES EAST. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH (GREATER THAN
80 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS
THE PREDICTED MEAN POSITION OF THE RIDGE IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR UNSEASONABLE
WARMTH. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND (PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD) DUE TO THE DEPARTING TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA. A COOLING TREND IS FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND. AS A RESULT, PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE REDUCED RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY ACROSS THIS REGION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS ALSO REDUCES CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MODESTLY FAVORED FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA UNDERNEATH PREDICTED WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW. A SLIGHT TILT
TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA UNDERNEATH PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS DUE TO PREDICTED
RIDGING. THE FORECAST FOR HAWAII TILTS WARM, DUE PRIMARILY TO OBSERVED ABOVE
NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
AND MIDWEST AS LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS AND INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
GULF PROMOTES INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS AREA. CONFIDENCE HAS ALSO INCREASED FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY, AS MODELS ARE
GENERALLY TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH. CONVERSELY,
CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE GENERALLY REDUCED RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS THE PREDICTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE
POSITION OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS SUPPORTIVE OF A DRY PATTERN. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA UNDERNEATH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE MODESTLY FAVORED FOR
PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII, AS CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD, OFFSET BY INCREASING MODEL UNCERTAINTY
LATER IN WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070313 - 20150401 - 20070318 - 20070308 - 20040319
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070314 - 20070309 - 20150401 - 20250325 - 20040319
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 30 - APR 03, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE B N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N B
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 01 - 07 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE B N
MASS N N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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