318
FXUS02 KWBC 242037
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
437 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VALID 12Z FRI MAR 27 2026 - 12Z TUE MAR 31 2026
..OVERVIEW
BROAD TROUGHING WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY WILL GIVE WAY TO THE WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDING
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEK ALONG WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SPREADING EASTWARD. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MODELS SHOW INCREASING SIGNALS FOR THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH TO THE WEST COAST.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THROUGH DAY 4 SATURDAY. UNCERTAINTY
EMERGES BY DAY 5 ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE THE GFS FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE CMC OFFERS AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THESE THREE GLOBAL MODELS ARE MUCH MORE
AGREEABLE WITH ONE ANOTHER IN COMPARISON. BY DAY 7, ALL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW A TREND TO DEVELOP MORE TROUGHING JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST, WITH HIGHER QPFS PUSHING ONSHORE AND FARTHER SOUTHEAST
INTO CALIFORNIA.
A GENERAL MODEL BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF, 06Z GFS, AND 00Z CMC
CAPTURED THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON DAYS 3 AND 4 WELL. INCREASING
INCORPORATION OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THESE MODELS BEGINS ON
DAY 5 TO HANDLE THE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH
THE LEAST PROPORTION COMING FROM THE GFS DUE TO ITS INCREASING
DEVIATION FROM THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER STATES ON FRIDAY. POST-FRONTAL RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS WELL AS
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY BEFORE ENDING BY SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FLORIDA WILL NEED TO WAIT UNTIL
SUNDAY FOR THE COOL AIR MASS TO ARRIVE.
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS PERSISTED IN THE WESTERN U.S. WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD INTO THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND,
SPREADING WARM TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS STATES LATER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST AS HIGH AS
THE LOWER 100S IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO CHALLENGE
AND SET RECORDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGHING AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACH THE WEST COAST.
DESPITE THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF THIS WEST COAST TROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WILL
REDIRECT AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST PACIFIC AIRMASS BACK INTO THE
SOUTHWEST IN WHAT MAY RESEMBLE A MONSOONAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
KONG
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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