192
FXUS02 KWBC 250755
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
VALID 12Z SAT MAR 28 2026 - 12Z WED APR 01 2026
..OVERVIEW
A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL FINALLY
DISLODGE FROM ITS POSITION AND DIG INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO A REGION
THAT HAS EXPERIENCED WIDESPREAD ABOVE AVERAGE TO RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO. AS A RESULT OF THE ARRIVAL
OF A WEST COAST TROUGH, THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., SPREADING MILD TEMPERATURES INTO THOSE
AREAS.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION FEATURING AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM, TRANSITIONING TO AN
ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE WEST AND A
SHIFT OF THE WESTERN RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST. THE AVAILABLE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CAPTURED THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL MID-LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 FAIRLY WELL. THE TIMING OF THE DIGGING
TROUGH AS WELL AS A DEPARTING LOW IN THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE
MAIN FEATURES OF UNCERTAINTY. THEREFORE, ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAVORED
IN THE BLEND BEGINNING ON DAY 5.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A QUASI-ZONAL MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A STRONG RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE CENTRAL U.S.. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 30-40 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE MAY TIE OR BREAK NUMEROUS
RECORDS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE A BIT IN THE WEST BENEATH THE INFLUENCE OF AN EAST PACIFIC
TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING MORE LOW ELEVATION RAIN AND
MOUNTAINOUS SNOW TO THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN BUBBLE HIGH WILL EJECT
OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND PHASE WITH THE MEAN TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
KEBEDE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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