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FXCA20 KWBC 251721
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
121 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 25 MARCH 2026 AT 1723 UTC:
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...
ON WEDNESDAY, A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE CARIBBEAN
COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. DURING THE DAY, THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
HONDURAS, WHICH WILL SUPPORT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT. BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE AXIS OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BECOME DISORGANIZED AND THERE WILL BE A RETURN OF ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO THE REGION. THE
REMNANT MOISTURE PLUME WILL STILL BE PROPAGATING WESTWARD INTO
BELIZE AND NORTHWEST HONDURAS, WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A SIMILAR LOW
LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL REMAIN FOR FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IT
WILL SUPPORT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL GUATEMALA ON
FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL REINFORCE
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES ACROSS NORTHEAST NICARAGUA, HONDURAS,
BELIZE, AND GUATEMALA FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION, ON WEDNESDAY, NORTH-CENTRAL
HONDURAS WILL OBSERVE ENHANCED TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA WHILE
THE SURROUNDING REGIONS WILL SEE MODERATE TOTAL PRECIPITATION
MAXIMA. ON THURSDAY, ENHANCED PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ARE LIKELY
ACROSS WEST HONDURAS AND ALONG THE FAR EASTERN BORDER OF HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA. BY FRIDAY, MODERATE TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA IS
EXPECTED HONDURAS, BELIZE, AND GUATEMALA. ALSO NOTE THAT THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH MODEST TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA LIKELY ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COSTA
RICA DUE TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE POOLING IN THE REGION.
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND THE BAHAMAS...
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO. THIS
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE HISPANIOLA LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE ISLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING. IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH, SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION IMPACTS, THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, THERE WILL BE MODERATE TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ACROSS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL REGIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING,
MODERATE TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND CENTRAL PUERTO RICO.
THEREAFTER, THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS
DEFINITION; HOWEVER, ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING
IN ITS WAKE, IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SECONDARY TROUGH ON FRIDAY WILL BE DRIVEN BY
THE INTENSIFICATION OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CUBA FOR FRIDAY.
THERE WILL ALSO BE MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRESENT IN THE
REGION AND AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW-TO-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE ACROSS CUBA, JAMAICA, THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS, AND CENTRAL HISPANIOLA FOR FRIDAY. MEANWHILE IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE PRESENT ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO MODEST TOTAL PRECIPITATION
MAXIMA.
ACROSS TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA...
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG
THE PACIFIC COASTS OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA, WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL
NOT EXCEED 10 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
ACROSS ECUADOR STARTING ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL REDUCE THE AVAILABLE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTS OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE, LOCAL EFFECTS, AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT. ALONG THE ECUADOR COAST, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE REGION THAT MAY
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
MEANWHILE ON THE COLOMBIAN COAST, DESPITE THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
WINDS, THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
PRESENT IN THE REGION, WHICH WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA.
EAST OF THE ANDES, A DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE AMAZON BASIN. FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMAZON BASIN WHILE
SPEED DIVERGENCE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE GUIANAS. LOW-TO-MID
LEVEL TROUGHING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMAZON FOR
THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND IT WILL BE SUPPORTING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. ALSO IN THIS REGION, THERE WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY
AND VERTICAL ASCENT, WHICH WILL YIELD ENHANCED TOTAL PRECIPITATION
MAXIMA. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN AMAZON BASIN WITH PASSING DAYS, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
DAILY TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA. ANOTHER REGION OF INTEREST IS
THE GUIANAS, IN PARTICULAR GUYANA AND SURINAME. A LONG-FETCH MOIST
PLUME EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SPEED DIVERGENCE WILL BE PRESENT
OVERHEAD AND HIGH INSTABILITY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL YIELD
ENHANCED TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
MEANWHILE ACROSS FRENCH GUIANA AND THE AMAZON DELTA, MOISTURE
PLUMES WILL ALSO BE AFFECTING THIS REGION, THOUGH THERE WILL BE
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THUS, EXPECT MODERATE TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
TINOCO-MORALES...(WPC)
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