982
FXUS06 KWBC 251902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED MARCH 25 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 31 - APR 04, 2026
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) BY THE END OF MARCH. THE UNUSUALLY STRONG
500-HPA RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY AN AMPLIFIED
MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM MARCH 31 TO APRIL 4. THE ECENS AND CMCE ARE THE MOST
AMPLIFIED WITH THIS TROUGH AND THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE PREFERRED GIVEN THEIR
GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY. AT THE BEGINNING OF APRIL, COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH PROGRESSES
INLAND AND HEIGHTS LOWER. DESPITE THIS PREDICTED COOLING TREND, NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, AND WESTERN ARIZONA AS
DAY 6 IS EXPECTED TO BE WARMER-THAN-NORMAL. THE OUTLOOK LEANS ON THE COLDER
SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BECOMING
MORE LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AN EXPANSIVE AREA WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DUE TO POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. LARGE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES (GREATER
THAN 70 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EAST TO THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WHERE 5-DAY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE MORE
THAN 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED
FOR NEW ENGLAND.
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN FROM WEST-TO-EAST LEADS TO A LARGE COVERAGE
WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE CONUS.
THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST
COAST TO THE ROCKIES WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT ACROSS CALIFORNIA
AND THE GREAT BASIN. THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK LEANS ON THE WETTER SIDE AS FAR SOUTH
AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, BUT NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN
ARIZONA. BASED ON THE ANALOG TOOL DERIVED FROM THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND,
THE OUTLOOK HEDGED DRIER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL OUTPUT FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, RIO GRANDE VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHEAST. FOR THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE DAY,
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
BY DAY 8 (APRIL 2). THIS SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT ARE THEN FORECAST
TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON DAY 10 (APRIL 4). THIS
RESULTS IN THE ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALONG A PREDICTED WARM FRONT AND BASED
ON GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT FOR THE GREAT LAKES.
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE MAINTAIN A WEAK 500-HPA TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA BUT POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE BECOMING MORE PROMINENT FOR
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE HEADING INTO APRIL. THIS PREDICTED LONGWAVE
PATTERN SUPPORTS A LEAN TOWARDS BELOW (ABOVE)-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SOUTHEASTERN (NORTHWESTERN) ALASKA. WITH AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN AND
LACK OF ANY MODEL SIGNAL, NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF
ALASKA.
FOLLOWING THE MULTIPLE KONA LOWS THAT BROUGHT FLOODING RAINFALL TO HAWAII, A
TRANSITION BACK TO PREVAILING TRADE WINDS IS FORECAST BY THE BEGINNING OF
APRIL. HOWEVER, ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES REMAIN
FORECAST THROUGHOUT HAWAII. BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, NEAR NORMAL OR A
SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY ON AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH
OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN CONUS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 02 - 08 2026
THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, EARLY IN WEEK-2, IS THE
PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS. HOWEVER,
FORECAST CONFIDENCE QUICKLY DECREASES LATER IN WEEK-2 AS THE ECENS AND GEFS
DIVERGE. THE ECENS FAVORS A PERSISTENCE OF THIS LONGWAVE 500-HPA TROUGH ACROSS
THE WEST, WHILE THE GEFS DEPICTS A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE WEST COAST. SINCE THE ECENS HAS SUPPORT FROM THE CMCE, THESE TWO MODEL
SOLUTIONS WERE PREFERRED. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING INLAND ON DAYS 8
AND 9, THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF ANOMALOUS COLD FOR AT LEAST
THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BUT THE LONGEVITY OF ANY
ANOMALOUS COLD IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN
WEEK-2. FOR THE 7-DAY PERIOD, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THE MOST LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS
WARMER-THAN-NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES COUPLED WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FOR THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES DECREASE SOUTH-TO-NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A DAY
OR TWO OF ANOMALOUS COLD, RELATED TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT, IS EXPECTED EARLY
IN WEEK-2. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION MAY AFFECT THIS REGION IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE, NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR MOST OF THIS REGION.
THE WEEK-2 OUTLOOK LEANS ON THE WETTER SIDE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE LOWER 48
STATES, ROUGHLY FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS IS DUE TO A LONGWAVE
500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT ONE OR TWO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. TO THE WEST OF THE PREDICTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS, BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN
OREGON. BASED ON TELECONNECTIONS UPON THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY
CENTER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, THE OUTLOOK HEDGED DRIER THAN THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST WHERE NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST.
ENSEMBLE MEANS DIFFER ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER ALASKA WITH THE GEFS
DEPICTING AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WHILE THE ECENS AND
CMCE FAVOR MORE ZONAL FLOW. THE UNCALIBRATED MODEL OUTPUT SUPPORTS AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF ABOVE (BELOW)-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHWESTERN (SOUTHEASTERN)
ALASKA. IN ADDITION, THE OUTLOOK LEANS ON THE WETTER SIDE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF ALASKA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII. POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ALSO
SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED
WITH THE LARGEST PROBABILITIES FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN BIG ISLAND.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO HIGH
PREDICTABILITY EARLY IN WEEK-2 OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
PERIOD.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070313 - 20150401 - 20040319 - 19970310 - 20070318
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070314 - 20070308 - 20150401 - 20040319 - 19970309
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 31 - APR 04, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE B A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 02 - 08 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N A NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE B A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page