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FXCA20 KWBC 261538
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1137 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 26 MARCH 2026 AT 1540 UTC:
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...
THE AXIS OF A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ENTERING
HISPANIOLA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING, THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS DEFINITION THEREAFTER.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, THERE WILL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS
FEATURE WILL ENHANCE MID-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
FAVOR A MODERATE TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH, LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA. ON FRIDAY, MID-LEVEL SPEED DIVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL
JET DYNAMICS WILL ASSIST IN THE INCREASE OF DIVERGENCE ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THUS, EXPECT THE MOST INTENSE
PRECIPITATION IMPACTS AND TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY, THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO,
AND HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE MOISTURE PLUME BEGINNING TO TREK
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LEEWARD LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS. THERE WILL BE
A SUBTLE INCREASE IN TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE PLUME ON SATURDAY.
ANOTHER MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
CUBA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND IT WILL SUPPORT DIVERGENCE IN THE
REGION. MEANWHILE, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MOIST, WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REACH 38MM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
FAVOR MODERATE TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AFTER LATE SATURDAY
EVENING, THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS
CUBA.
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...
A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST
HONDURAS AND IT IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS DEFINITION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ITS REMNANT MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE INTO BELIZE AND GUATEMALA ON THURSDAY. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, A JET STREAK MAX WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
AND IT WILL PROMOTE UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS BELIZE AND NORTHWEST
HONDURAS. IN THE MID-LEVELS, THERE WILL BE DIFFLUENCE OVER BELIZE,
WHICH WILL SUPPORT MID-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL YIELD ENHANCED TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ACROSS BELIZE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY, MOIST AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK
MID-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVER BELIZE, WHICH WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER REGION OF INTEREST IS EASTERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHEAST NICARAGUA. EXPECT ENHANCED EASTERLY AND
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS REGION, WHICH WILL YIELD DAILY
MODERATE TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA.
MEANWHILE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL GUATEMALA, LOW LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
BE PRESENT IN THE REGION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AT THE SAME
TIME, THERE WILL BE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS, WHICH
WILL INCREASE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL FAVOR DAILY MODERATE TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA.
ACROSS MEXICO...
A POTENT MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER
THE NORTHEAST REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST INTO
THE GULF ON SATURDAY AND WILL QUICKLY LOSE ITS DEFINITION. A
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHWEST MEXICO ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL DECREASE IN PRESSURE
VALUES IN THE REGION. IN THE LOW LEVELS, A TROUGH WILL BE
DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS WELL. THESE
PATTERNS WILL AID IN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THE
TRANSPORT OF MOIST TROPICAL AIR INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE
COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT, MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, AND THE
DIURNAL CYCLE WILL FAVOR ISOLATED MODEST TOTAL PRECIPITATION
MAXIMA ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE REGION. MEANWHILE ALONG THE
COAST OF THE GULF STATES IN THE EAST, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS THAT WILL SUPPORT THE TRANSPORT OF MOIST
AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO LEAD TO MODEST TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA FOR SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL BE FURTHER REINFORCED BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
ACROSS TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA...
LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK ACROSS THE PACIFIC
COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. HOWEVER,
THE ENVIRONMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO STAY MOIST, WHERE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE REACHING 50MM. STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT, LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS
ECUADOR, LEADING TO A GRADUAL DRYING TREND ALONG ITS SOUTHERN
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE. THUS, THE MOST INTENSE PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ACROSS ECUADOR
WILL BE FOR THURSDAY AND DECREASE THEREAFTER. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE
COLOMBIAN COAST, THERE WILL BE MODERATE TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WILL REINFORCE PRECIPITATION PROCESSES IN THE REGION AS WELL.
EAST OF THE ANDES, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
EASTERLIES AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT THE MOST
INTENSE TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF LOW
LEVEL TROUGHS, WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE AMPLIFIED.
THOUGH UPPER LEVEL SPEED DIVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENCE WILL BE
PROMINENT ACROSS NORTHERN BRASIL AND THE WESTERN AMAZON BASIN,
MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS MAY PROHIBIT THE SUSTENANCE OF DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. THE GUIANAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE ENHANCED TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS
AS WELL, AND THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SPEED
DIVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENCE PRESENT OVERHEAD, WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION.
TINOCO-MORALES...(WPC)
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