677
FXUS06 KWBC 261920
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU MARCH 26 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 01 - 05 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A FAIRLY COMPLEX
500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND ITS VICINITY. A PAIR OF RIDGES
ARE FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN SIBERIA AND SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA,
RESPECTIVELY. DOWNSTREAM, ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION HAS PROGRESSED EASTWARD RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY
AS THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST LATE NEXT
WEEK. EXPANSIVE RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE PLAINS. DEEP
ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARD SOUTHERN GREENLAND,
ALLOWING ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST IN THE VICINITY OF HAWAII, FAVORING
AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR A BROAD REGION OF THE COUNTRY,
ENCOMPASSING MOST AREAS OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CONUS. PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY'S OUTLOOK, CORRESPONDING TO EXPECTED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES. VERY
HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE INDICATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE PREDICTED MEAN POSITION OF THE
EXPANSIVE RIDGE IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THESE
REGIONS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, AS A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THESE AREAS. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED
ENHANCED NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ALASKA, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED
ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR HAWAII, GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL SSTS OBSERVED IN THE
ADJACENT PACIFIC.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST-CENTRAL
CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS, PLAINS, GREAT LAKES, AND ADJACENT AREAS, AS POTENTIAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF AND PREDICTED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES COMBINE TO PROMOTE AN ACTIVE PATTERN. CONFIDENCE IS
PARTICULARLY HIGH (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE BOTH SUPPORTIVE OF
INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXCEED 50 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT
BASIN. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA DUE
TO POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR NORTHERN ALASKA, DUE TO PREDICTED MEAN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF HAWAII, DUE TO
PREDICTED ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 03 - 09 2026
DURING WEEK-2, THE ANOMALOUS TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKEN. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD, STRONG RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE PACIFIC,
RESULTING IN HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT REMNANT MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WEST THROUGH WEEK-2. COINCIDENT WITH THE WESTERN MID-LEVEL TROUGH,
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS, PROMOTING ENHANCED SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND VICINITY.
DOWNSTREAM, THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST, WITH THE GREATEST POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXPECTED
TO PUSH OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.
DOWNSTREAM, THE DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD TO A
POSITION SOUTHEAST OF GREENLAND. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN
ALASKA AHEAD OF A RIDGE PREDICTED OVER EASTERN SIBERIA. ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE ALEUTIANS, THE WESTERN MAINLAND, AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, WITH NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS MORE LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
MAINLAND. MEAN CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS HAWAII,
PROMOTING A CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
AS AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE MOVES EAST. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS
THE PREDICTED MEAN POSITION OF THE RIDGE IS FAVORABLE FOR UNSEASONABLE WARMTH.
CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REDUCED RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY'S
OUTLOOK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE.
A COOLING TREND IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH THESE REGIONS. AS A RESULT,
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE REDUCED RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY.
CONVERSELY, CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST, AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS AND A RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MODESTLY FAVORED FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA UNDERNEATH WEAKLY ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS DUE TO PREDICTED
RIDGING. THE FORECAST FOR HAWAII TILTS WARM, DUE PRIMARILY TO OBSERVED ABOVE
NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS, THE GREAT
LAKES, THE PLAINS, AND ADJACENT AREAS, AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND INCREASED
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF PROMOTE INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY, AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVERSELY, AN INCREASINGLY DRY PATTERN IS FAVORED
ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND ADJACENT AREAS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE PACIFIC. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MUCH OF
ALASKA UNDERNEATH WEAKLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW. AN ACTIVE PATTERN AND
ASSOCIATED INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR
HAWAII, AS CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS, OFFSET BY
INCREASING MODEL DIVERGENCE LATER IN WEEK-2, PARTICULARLY WITH THE GEFS.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070314 - 20150401 - 19970310 - 20040320 - 20070306
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070316 - 20070311 - 20150401 - 20040322 - 19970309
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 01 - 05 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 03 - 09 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N N NEVADA N B
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH N N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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