829
FXUS02 KWBC 262013
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
413 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
VALID 12Z SUN MAR 29 2026 - 12Z THU APR 02 2026
..OVERVIEW
A GRADUAL FLIP IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING
THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD AS BROAD TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. GIVES WAY TO LOWERING HEIGHTS AND GENERAL TROUGHING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S LATER INTO NEXT WEEK. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY WARM ACROSS THE SOUTH TO MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. BUT COLD AIR FROM CANADA MAY ADVANCE FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS AND THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK WITH UNCERTAIN FRONTAL
WAVE PROGRESSIONS NEAR/ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. UNCERTAINTIES GROW FROM DAY 5 ONWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES WHERE THE 00Z ECMWF LED THE WAY FOR A MORE ROBUST
AMPLIFICATION OF A FRONTAL WAVE TOGETHER WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF
COLD AIR FROM CANADA BEHIND THE WAVE. FOR THE WEST COAST, THE
TIMING OF THE INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH NEXT WEEK APPEARS MOSTLY ON TRACK, ALTHOUGH
MODELS HAVE VACILLATED ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS
WELL AS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WAS USED ON DAYS 3 AND 4 FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING USE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE 00Z EC MEAN AND 06Z
GEFS BEGINNING ON DAY 5 TO HANDLE THE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. SIMILAR TO ITS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION, THE EC MEAN
HAS LED THE WAY FOR FAVORING MORE COLD AIR INTRUSION FROM CANADA
AND A FASTER EJECTION OF A FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
FROM DAY 5 ONWARD.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CHALLENGE OR BREAK
DAILY RECORDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN,
FOUR CORNERS, CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS STRONG THIS WEEKEND. BUT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS FROM THE EASTERN U.S. TO THE WESTERN
U.S. NEXT WEEK, THE POTENTIAL OF RECORD HIGHS WILL DIMINISH AND
SHIFT EAST INTO MORE LIMITED AREAS OF THE SOUTH AND INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM GETS, MUCH COLDER AIR COULD BE SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN
U.S. LATER NEXT WEEK.
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO MUCH OF THE
WESTERN U.S. EXCEPT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS A DEEP PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL ENHANCE GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
BECOME A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER EAST
MAINLY ACROSS THE MIDWEST MIDWEEK. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT APPEARS TO
EMERGE AROUND TUESDAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. TWO SEPARATE YET RECENT ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HAVE MADE THOSE SOILS
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING BY ANY MORE HEAVY RAIN THAT
OCCURS NEXT WEEK.
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURING A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND LATER NEXT WEEK.
KONG
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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