541
FXCA20 KWBC 271733
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
132 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 27 MARCH 2026 AT 1735 UTC:
ACROSS MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ITS ARRIVAL, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SHOWERS AND A
TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 10MM THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COAHUILA. THE COLD FRONT WILL LOSE ITS DEFINITION ON
SATURDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD, A DECAYING LOW-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH GULF. THOUGH ITS STRUCTURE WILL BECOME
DISORGANIZED IN THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVELS, IT WILL STILL BE WELL
DEFINED AT 700MB. THIS WILL ENABLE THE RETURN OF EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS INTO THE TAMAULIPAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL VERACRUZ
STARTING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL ASSIST IN THE TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. THIS WILL
FAVOR MODEST TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN
THESE STATES. IN THE NORTHWEST, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
DIGGING INTO THE REGION AND WILL ASSIST IN THE LOWERING OF SURFACE
PRESSURES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA STARTING SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH INTO SONORA AND SINALOA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THUS, EXPECT MODEST TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA FOR SATURDAY IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED STATES. FOR SUNDAY, TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA WILL
BE ENHANCED AS THERE WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PRESENT IN THE
REGION.
ANOTHER REGION OF INTEREST IS TABASCO, CHIAPAS, AND CENTRAL
GUATEMALA. A DECAYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER CHIAPAS AND
GUATEMALA ON FRIDAY AND IT WILL SUPPORT MID-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
VERTICAL ASCENT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, EXPECT THE PROPAGATION OF A
LOW LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY THE
EVENING, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THIS REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
THEREAFTER, THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FROM AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
ACROSS GUATEMALA, TABASCO AND CHIAPAS. MOISTURE POOLING WILL ALSO
BE PROMINENT FOR ALL THREE DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR
ENHANCED TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS
GUATEMALA. MEANWHILE, THE MOST INTENSE TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA
ACROSS TABASCO AND CHIAPAS WILL BE OBSERVED ON SATURDAY.
IN BELIZE, HONDURAS, AND NICARAGUA, EXPECT THE ONGOING EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
STARTING SATURDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF DECREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS BELIZE ON SATURDAY. BUT, BY LATE SUNDAY
EVENING, THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL AGAIN SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY
COMPONENT. ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, EXPECT ENHANCED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. PRECIPITATION PROCESSES
WILL ALSO BE REINFORCED BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT,
WHICH WILL YIELD DAILY MODERATE TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER
IN THIS REGION AS A STATIONARY FRONT FOR SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE PREVALENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND THERE WILL
ALSO BE MOISTURE POOLING. THUS, MODEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ON
SATURDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY.
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...
A PREEXISTING LONG-FETCH MOISTURE PLUME THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER
THE GREATER ANTILLES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH PASSING
DAYS. ON FRIDAY, THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS
JAMAICA, SOUTHEAST CUBA, HISPANIOLA, AND PUERTO RICO. THOUGH, IN
THE MID-LEVELS, EXPECT ENHANCED DIVERGENCE ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
FURTHERMORE, A JET STREAK MAX WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ISLANDS AND IT WILL SUSTAIN DIVERGENCE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR ENHANCED TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ACROSS THE CENTRAL REGIONS OF HISPANIOLA.
MEANWHILE IN SOUTHEAST CUBA, JAMAICA, AND PUERTO RICO, THE DIURNAL
CYCLE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT FOR
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY, YIELDING MODERATE TOTAL PRECIPITATION
MAXIMA. BY SATURDAY, THERE WILL BE DRY AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
ISLANDS, LEADING TO A DECREASE IN TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA.
HOWEVER, IN JAMAICA, THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRESENT AND A LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS
PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR SUNDAY. AGAIN, OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND THE
DIURNAL CYCLE WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AND WILL YIELD
MODERATE TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA. THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL ALSO
BE TREKKING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LEEWARD LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS AND
THE ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL FAVOR MODEST TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE REGION.
ACROSS TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA...
ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR, EXPECT WEAK LOW
LEVEL WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COLOMBIA
COAST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ECUADORIAN COAST,
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE PREVALENT AND WILL LEAD TO A
DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER. EXPECT MODEST TOTAL PRECIPITATION
MAXIMA ACROSS ECUADOR AND MODERATE TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA
ACROSS THE COLOMBIAN COAST. EAST OF THE ANDES, THERE WILL BE A
RESURGENCE IN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, WHERE THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION WILL OBSERVE VALUES UP TO 50MM FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. THE REGIONS OF INTEREST WILL BE WHERE LOW LEVEL TROUGHS ARE
TRAVERSING AS THIS WILL BE WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MOST
AMPLIFIED. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO BE SUSTAINING
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE BASIN, FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT FOR DEEP
CONVECTION.
TINOCO-MORALES...(WPC)
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