363
FXUS06 KWBC 271930
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI MARCH 27 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 02 - 06 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE ARE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN SOME AREAS AND UNDERLYING
VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A
RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE
WESTERN BERING SEA AND A SECOND RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE SOUTH OF
ALASKA. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONTIGUOUS
UNITED STATES (CONUS) BY ALL MODELS, WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH IN
THE ECMWF RELATIVE TO THE GEFS FORECAST. ALL MODELS PREDICT THE TROUGH TO
INITIALLY DEAMPLIFY AND PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AS
THE RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WEST
DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THE GEFS PREDICTS A TROUGH TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS LATER IN THE PERIOD, WITH RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. IN CONTRAST, THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS PREDICT POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGHOUT THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. POSITIVE AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE
MANUAL BLEND OF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS GIVEN THE
GREATEST WEIGHT IN TODAY'S MANUAL BLEND, DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL AND
CONSISTENCY WITH YESTERDAY'S FORECAST.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND
THE SOUTHWEST, AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE DURING THE PERIOD. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS, AS A TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND
DEAMPLIFIES, NEAR NORMAL IS FAVORED ACROSS THE REMAINING AREAS OF THE WEST AND
FOR THE NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS OUTSIDE OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, UNDER PERSISTENT
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS, AND
CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, CONSISTENT WITH THE
CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED MODEL TEMPERATURES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED ECMWF
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR
MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED SURFACE LOW. NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE WEST FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS, WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC
REPLACES THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS. NEAR NORMAL IS
FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH RAW MODEL PRECIPITATION
TOOLS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT
FOR PARTS OF TEXAS, THE MIDWEST, AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE MOISTURE FLOW IS ENHANCED INTO THESE AREAS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH
RAW ECMWF MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE LONGWAVE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN
FORECAST, OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES IN THE DAILY 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS AND IN
THE MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 04 - 10 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FROM THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE SIMILAR TO THEIR RESPECTIVE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECASTS, WITH
SOME EVOLUTION OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN. THE ECMWF PREDICTS A MORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ACROSS ALASKA, WHILE THE GEFS PREDICTS WEAK OR NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ACROSS THE MAINLAND. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTEND FROM
THE PACIFIC ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD AVERAGES.
THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE WESTERN CONUS, WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CENTRAL CONUS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS MAINTAIN A STRONGER
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, CENTERED OFF OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. A TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW IS PREDICTED TO THE WEST OF HAWAII.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH RAW
DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR THE WEST IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, UNDER PERSISTENT POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND MAINLAND ALASKA,
EXCLUDING THE NORTH SLOPE, CONSISTENT WITH RAW DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST
IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT
WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. PROBABILITIES EXCEED 50 PERCENT FROM
TEXAS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH ENHANCED SURFACE MOISTURE FLOW INTO THESE
REGIONS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070315 - 20150402 - 20040321 - 19970310 - 20250327
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070316 - 20040322 - 20150401 - 19970309 - 20070311
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 02 - 06 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH N N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 04 - 10 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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