681
FXUS02 KWBC 272000
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
VALID 12Z MON MAR 30 2026 - 12Z FRI APR 03 2026
..OVERVIEW
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL SIGNAL A PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A FASTER EJECTION OF A FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, AND A FASTER SOUTHWARD
SURGE OF COLD AIR FROM CANADA INTO THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
THEREAFTER. A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LATER NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO
PENETRATE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF AN
ELONGATED LEE LOW ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE
COULD BRING SOME ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL U.S.
WITH WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES CONTINUE TO BE THE REGION WHERE MODELS
PRESENT MUCH UNCERTAINTY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE EC-AIFS
(SINCE TWO DAYS AGO) AND ECMWF (SINCE YESTERDAY) LED THE WAY FOR A
FASTER EJECTION OF THE TROUGH OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHER MODELS HAVE SINCE FOLLOWED
SUIT. THIS HAS LED TO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A FASTER EJECTION OF A
LOW-PRESSURE WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE WAVE POSSIBLY
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE
ACCELERATED THIS WAVE QUITE A BIT COMPARED WITH FORECASTS FROM A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO, AND IT APPEARS THAT FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
ACCELERATION OF THIS LOW-PRESSURE WAVE IS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD LEAD
TO A FASTER SOUTHWARD SURGE OF COLD AIR FROM CANADA INTO THE MID-
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY THEREAFTER. AT THE SAME TIME, A SUMMER-LIKE
BERMUDA RIDGE IS STILL HOLDING STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO
THE SOUTH BUT THE STRONGER CANADIAN COLD AIR INTRUSION IS DAMPING
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE, WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE, MODELS ARE SHOWING SUBTLE TREND OF EJECTING THE
ELONGATED LEE LOW EARLIER INTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON A MULTI-MODEL BLEND BUT LEANED TOWARD
ECMWF/EC ENSEMBLE MEAN IN FAVOR OF THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE
NORTHERN TIER LOW-PRESSURE WAVE.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S. WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE AS IT MEANDERS EASTWARD.
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND SPREADING INTO PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST. THERE COULD BE A NONZERO CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL/FLOODING CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS MOISTURE LEVELS
(PWS) COULD REACH OVER THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO LOWER GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER, FURTHER
ACCELERATION OF THE LOW-PRESSURE WAVE COULD LEAD TO A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AND LOWER THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS REGION. THE CURRENT FORECAST AXIS FOR
HEAVY RAIN GENERALLY ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE THE FRONT/LOW
COULD LINGER IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OF RECENT HEAVY RAINS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY, SO ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN
UNLESS MODELS SHIFT. FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT, EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BE MOVING TOO QUICKLY TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS.
THEN AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGHING IN THE WEST, MOIST INFLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO LATER NEXT WEEK. WILL
WAIT TO SEE THE STRENGTH OF A POSSIBLE SECOND LOW PRESSURE WAVE
LATER NEXT WEEK SOMEWHERE IN THE EAST CENTRAL-U.S. WITH THESE
SYSTEMS, THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST COULD SEE SOME SNOW AND ICE.
ACROSS THE WEST, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TROUGHING WILL LEAD TO
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SHOULD
TRACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA, EVEN INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, BY TUESDAY,
BUT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN TOO WEAK TO CAUSE FLOODING
ISSUES. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS COULD BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TO ROCKIES WITH THIS TROUGHY PATTERN.
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48.
HIGHS COULD REACH THE 80S AS FAR NORTH AS NEBRASKA AND IOWA ON
MONDAY, AND SOME DAILY RECORDS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE STRONG
COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES COULD HANG ON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER INTO PARTS OF THE EAST THOUGH, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BERMUDA HIGH. THE WEST SHOULD SEE COOLING TEMPERATURES AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES GIVEN THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TROUGHING ALOFT.
KONG/TATE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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