839
FXUS02 KWBC 280741
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
341 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VALID 12Z TUE MAR 31 2026 - 12Z SAT APR 04 2026
...WET PATTERN EMERGING FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. NEXT
WEEK/WEEKEND...
..OVERVIEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH A WAVY FRONTAL SYSTEM AHEAD OF IT, BRINGING
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN AREAS, THOUGH A BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SOUTH
WILL MAINTAIN WARMTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY AND EASTWARD
INTO LATE WEEK, CONTINUING UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE, INCLUDING
RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD
FOCUS OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. LATER NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE
WESTERN TROUGHING. WINTRY WEATHER INCLUDING SNOW AND ICE ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO A
DAY AGO WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY, SWEEPING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. THUS A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WORKED FOR THIS
FEATURE, AND THE 01Z NBM LOOKED IN THE BALLPARK FOR TEMPERATURES
REGARDING THE FRONTAL TIMING.
UPSTREAM, A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
INTO CALIFORNIA LATE TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
CMC RUNS HAVE BEEN NOTABLY SLOW WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND WERE NOT
PREFERRED. MEANWHILE, A LARGER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL DIVE
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WEDNESDAY AND REACH THE NORTHWEST BY
THURSDAY. MODELS LARGELY AGREE ON THIS TIMING UP THROUGH THURSDAY,
BUT DIVERGE QUITE A BIT BY FRIDAY-SATURDAY. GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN
QUICKER TO MOVE THE TROUGH EAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND EVEN START TO
SHOW THE TROUGH GOING NEGATIVE TILT BY DAY 7/SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF RUNS ARE NOTABLY SLOW AND MAINTAIN ENERGY WELL
SOUTHWEST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE AIFS AND OTHER EC-BASED
AI MODELS ARE ALL MUCH FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL EC. THUS DID NOT
FAVOR THE EC OR GFS, INSTEAD LEANING ON THE AI MODELS WITH THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS, WHILE THE CMC WAS ACTUALLY A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND
TOO.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S. WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE AS IT MEANDERS EASTWARD.
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY AND SPREADING INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY. THE
MOISTURE ANOMALIES SEEM TO MAXIMIZE (WITH PWS OVER THE 95TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION, WHICH MAY SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN. THUS HAVE ADDED A
MARGINAL RISK IN THE DAY 4/TUESDAY ERO FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING
CONCERNS FOCUSED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. SOME OF THIS AREA ALSO HAS
SNOW COVERED GROUND, SO MELTING COULD EXACERBATE FLOODING.
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING COULD BE NONZERO FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
FRONT IN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
BUT THE FRONT MAY BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY RISK AREAS
AT THIS TIME. THEN BY WEDNESDAY, MOIST INFLOW INTO THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD PRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, BUT MOVE MORE SLOWLY
WITH RELOADING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. WILL
SHOW A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS FOR FLOODING
CONCERNS, AS HIGH RAIN RATES WITH POSSIBLE TRAINING COULD OVERCOME
THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. THURSDAY, AND
PERHAPS FOCUS A BIT FARTHER WEST BY FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PULLING IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE. INITIALLY ON TUESDAY, THERE ARE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND ICE
ACROSS MAINE, AND THEN CHILLIER AIR BY LATER NEXT WEEK COULD LEAD
TO WINTRY WEATHER CONCERNS FOR INTERIOR PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA TO
THE NORTHEAST ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
ACROSS THE WEST, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE COMMON NEXT WEEK AS
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TROUGHING MOVE THROUGH. SOME ENHANCED QPF IS
LIKELY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TOO WEAK
TO CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS COULD BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TO ROCKIES AND PLAINS WITH THIS TROUGHY PATTERN.
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
U.S. INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST ANOMALIES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AS TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE 70S AND 80S. HOWEVER, THE STRONG
COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTER A WARM
MIDWEEK. WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES COULD HANG ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER THOUGH, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BERMUDA HIGH. THE
WEST SHOULD SEE COOLING TEMPERATURES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES GIVEN
THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TROUGHING ALOFT.
TATE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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