084
FXUS06 KWBC 281902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SAT MARCH 28 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 03 - 07 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PREDICTED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND ARE
CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL MORE
HEAVILY DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND
INDICATES A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER EASTERN SIBERIA
AND THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND A SECOND RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN OF ALASKA AND THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS). A WEAK
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. IN CONTRAST, A
RIDGE AND POSITIVE AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST IN THE VICINITY OF
HAWAII, LEADING TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE STATE.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN CONUS, AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE DURING THE PERIOD. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOLS, AS A TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND DEAMPLIFIES, NEAR NORMAL IS
FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
OUTSIDE OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT
CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS,
UNDER PERSISTENT POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL
FORECASTS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED MODEL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE
TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR
MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED SURFACE LOW, WHILE
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA
DUE ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS
THE WEST FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE
PREDICTED OVER THE PACIFIC AND THE WEST EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS, AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE MOISTURE FLOW IS ENHANCED INTO THESE
AREAS. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR HAWAII,
SUPPORTED BY THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET
BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 05 - 11 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS OF THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN LESS
AGREEMENT ON THE 8-14 DAY AVERAGE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, COMPARED TO
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECASTS, AND A DEAMPLIFICATION OF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
OVER THE ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE ALSO PREDICTED OVER THE CONUS IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD
AVERAGES, WHILE A TROUGH AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER
EASTERN CANADA. A TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW IS PREDICTED TO THE WEST OF HAWAII.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR THE CONUS (EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA,
WHERE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS FAVORED) IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD,
UNDER A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ANOMALY PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH (RANGING FROM A 60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE GREATEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND MAINLAND ALASKA,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD,
UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION. PROBABILITIES EXCEED 50 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS,
WITH ENHANCED SURFACE MOISTURE FLOW INTO THESE REGIONS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20150402 - 20070315 - 20040321 - 19970310 - 20250327
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070316 - 20040322 - 20150401 - 19970309 - 20250326
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 03 - 07 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA N A WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N B
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 05 - 11 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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