705
FXUS06 KWBC 291901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN MARCH 29 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 04 - 08 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PREDICTED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND ARE
CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL
STRONGER DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND
INDICATES A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER EASTERN SIBERIA
AND THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND A SECOND RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC,
SOUTHEASTERN OF ALASKA, AND THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS). A
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. IN CONTRAST, A
RIDGE AND ABOVE AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST IN THE VICINITY OF HAWAII,
LEADING TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE STATE.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER ENHANCED NORTHERLY
FLOW, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS PREDICTED. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE CONUS (EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF TEXAS,
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MONTANA EXTENDING EASTWARD TO WISCONSIN, WHERE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED) WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT
CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS,
UNDER PERSISTENT POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL
FORECASTS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED MODEL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, SUPPORTED BY THE
TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND
ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED SURFACE LOW. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS AND PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE PREDICTED OVER THE PACIFIC AND THE WEST
EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50
PERCENT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS, AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE MOISTURE FLOW IS
ENHANCED INTO THESE AREAS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII,
SUPPORTED BY THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET
BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 06 - 12 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS OF THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN LESS
AGREEMENT ON THE 8-14 DAY AVERAGE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, COMPARED TO
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECASTS, AND A DEAMPLIFICATION OF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
OVER THE ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. WEAKLY POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE ALSO PREDICTED OVER THE CONUS IN THE 8-14 DAY
PERIOD AVERAGES, WHILE A TROUGH AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
OVER EASTERN CANADA. A TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW IS PREDICTED TO THE WEST OF
HAWAII.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR THE CONUS (EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF MONTANA, NORTH DAKOTA,
MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN, MICHIGAN, AND MAINE, WHERE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED) IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, UNDER A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
ANOMALY PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (RANGING FROM A 60 TO 70
PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS, WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE
TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR ALASKA (EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHERE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST), CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECAST
TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE WEST IN THE WEEK-2
PERIOD, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, SUPPORTED BY AN
OPERATIONAL AUTOBLEND PRECIPITATION TOOL. PROBABILITIES EXCEED 50 PERCENT OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS, WITH ENHANCED SURFACE MOISTURE FLOW INTO THESE
REGIONS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20150402 - 20070315 - 20040321 - 19970310 - 20030401
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20150402 - 20070316 - 20040322 - 19970309 - 20250326
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 04 - 08 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA B N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 06 - 12 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page