116
FXUS02 KWBC 300800
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
VALID 12Z THU APR 02 2026 - 12Z MON APR 06 2026
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EAST-
CENTRAL U.S. LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...
...APRIL SNOW AND ICE CONCERNS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT
LAKES TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY-FRIDAY...
..OVERVIEW
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY, A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
A WAVY FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND
SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, INCLUDING SNOW AND ICE IN
THE NORTHERN TIER AND HEAVY RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. MEANWHILE MORE
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST BY
THURSDAY AND EASTWARD INTO LATE WEEK, CONTINUING UNSETTLED WEATHER
THERE, INCLUDING RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. AS THAT
TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE PLAINS, ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN NORTH AND RENEW POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS IN THE
PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND VICINITY ONCE AGAIN, ENDING UP WITH
MULTIPLE DAYS OF FLOODING CONCERNS IN THAT REGION. THE TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN
U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND, SPREADING SOME RAIN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AROUND SUNDAY.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE TIMING OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.
AND LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY-FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
BETTER CONSENSUS IN THE FRONTAL POSITIONS AND TIMING AND QPF AXIS.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES, A MULTI-
MODEL BLEND WORKED WELL FOR THIS FEATURE. THE MODEL TREND OVER THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS BEEN FOR THE WARM FRONT TO BE FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD.
UPSTREAM, THE UPPER LOW SHOWS GOOD CONSENSUS ON TIMING COMING INTO
THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND REACHING THE PLAINS FRIDAY, BUT
CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING MODEL SPREAD BY THE WEEKEND WITH ITS
SPEED TRACKING EAST, AFFECTING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT. GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE FAST SIDE,
LIFTING THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW NORTHEASTWARD MORE QUICKLY
COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE. BOTH THE AIFS AND EC 00Z RUNS TRENDED A
BIT SLOWER/WESTWARD EVEN COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS, SO THE
FAST GFS WAS NOT FAVORED. THE 12Z CMC WAS AMONG THE SLOWEST
SOLUTIONS BUT THE NEW 00Z RUN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND
AND IS RIGHT ON TOP OF THE AIGFS WITH THE LOW POSITION AT 00Z AND
12Z SATURDAY. THE WPC FORECAST INCREASED PROPORTIONS OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS (ESPECIALLY THE ECENS) AND THE AIFS AS THE PERIOD
PROGRESSED GIVEN THE INCREASING SPREAD. THIS MODEL BLEND ALSO
WORKED WITH WESTERN U.S. RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH, THOUGH MODEL
SPREAD ALSO INCREASES WITH POTENTIAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY THAT
COULD REACH THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TAP INTO
GULF MOISTURE AND SPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. INTO THURSDAY. THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT COULD LEAD TO
FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A MARGINAL RISK REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
DAY 4/THURSDAY IN THOSE REGIONS. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WELL,
BUT COULD BE MORE LIMITED AS THE FORCING LIFTS OUT, AND HIGHER
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE COULD KEEP THE ERO RISK LESS THAN 5 PERCENT
THERE. A CHILLY AIRMASS IN THE NORTHERN U.S. WILL ALLOW FOR WINTRY
WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE GREAT LAKES TO INTERIOR NORTHEAST. THIS
INCLUDES A SWATH OF FREEZING RAIN/ICE ALONG WITH MULTIPLE INCHES OF
APRIL SNOW, WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE U.P.
OF MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MAINE. SOME AREAS COULD SEE TRANSITIONING
PRECIPITATION TYPES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE WEST THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT
FOR PRECIPITATION. LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF NEAR THE WEST COAST BUT OVERSPREAD THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS ARE OVER A FOOT
ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. GUSTY WINDS COULD BE A
CONCERN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO ROCKIES AND PLAINS WITH
THIS TROUGHY PATTERN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EAST, WITH SOME
SNOW LINGERING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND POTENTIALLY SPREADING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE THE TROUGH WILL
PULL GULF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. ONCE AGAIN
ON FRIDAY. WILL START THE DAY 5/FRIDAY ERO WITH A MARGINAL RISK
STRETCHING FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH A GOOD SETUP FOR HIGH RAIN RATES.
THE RAINFALL FOOTPRINT COULD BE RATHER SIMILAR TO A RAIN EVENT
MIDWEEK, POTENTIALLY EXACERBATING FLOODING CONCERNS, SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE
ISSUANCES. THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW/FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY
PUSH EAST OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST-
CENTRAL U.S. BACK INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX VICINITY ON SATURDAY, AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO GULF COAST ON SUNDAY. NORTHERN TIER
ICE AND SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE MIDWEST BY THE WEEKEND DEPENDENT ON THE LOW
TRACK.
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH EVEN HIGHER
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF GENERALLY 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOCUSED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE 70S AND 80S
THERE. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL SUPPORT THESE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WARM FRONT STAYING
NORTH OF THESE AREAS. MEANWHILE, ROUNDS OF COOLER THAN AVERAGE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND
COLD FRONTS. EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONTS SHOULD PRESS ACROSS THE
EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. THE WEST
CAN GENERALLY EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, BUT WILL WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING COMES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH
ALOFT.
TATE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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