470
FXUS01 KWBC 300807
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
406 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
VALID 12Z MON MAR 30 2026 - 12Z WED APR 01 2026
...A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST...
...ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, ROCKIES, AND INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS...
... A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WEST WILL BRING MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND
THE HIGH PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND COULD SEE WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE PICKING UP IN A BIG WAY THIS WEEK. THE
FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS TO DISCUSS THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT AND
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM ALONG
AND NEAR A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IOWA, WISCONSIN, AND
MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR LARGE HAILSTONES GREATER
THAN TWO INCHES. GOING INTO TUESDAY, THE SEVERE WEATHER FOOTPRINT
WILL EXPAND IN SIZE FROM ILLINOIS EASTWARD TO UPSTATE NEW YORK AS
STORMS RE-FIRE ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR CITIES SUCH AS CHICAGO, FORT WAYNE,
CLEVELAND, AND BUFFALO FOR THREATS OF LARGE HAIL, STRONG WINDS,
AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ALSO, WEST TEXAS TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WILL SEE A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY AS STORMS
FIRE ALONG A DRY LINE AND NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE REGION.
AN ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND RISK MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM.
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY FROM CHICAGO TO NEW
ENGLAND DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY HIGH PWATS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERE) AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THE RAINFALL FORECAST CALLS FOR A
WIDE ENVELOPE OF 2-3 INCHES, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE PLAINS INTO THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. ACROSS THE PLAINS, MONDAY WILL FEATURE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS (OVER 15 MPH POSSIBLE) WILL BE POSSIBLE. WYOMING MAY
SEE A HIGHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND
WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 MPH LIKELY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING
SNOWFALL TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. THE ABSAROKAS IN IDAHO MAY
SEE AN ADDITIONAL 6 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY. ON TUESDAY, ANOTHER
IMPULSE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST AND BRING SNOWFALL FROM
THE SIERRA NEVADA TO THE ROCKIES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH, THOUGH
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OVER 8000 FEET MAY SEE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 8-12 INCHES. FOR TUESDAY, NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD SEE SOME
FREEZING RAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE
OVERRUNS . WPC PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN A QUARTER OF INCH
ACROSS MAINE ARE AROUND 10-30 %. BE CAREFUL TRAVELING AS JUST A
GLAZE OF ICE CAN LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
WILDER
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