446
FXUS06 KWBC 301902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON MARCH 30 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 05 - 09 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PREDICTED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND ARE
CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL
STRONGER DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND
INDICATES A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC, WITH POSITIVE ANOMALIES EXTENDING TO MAINLAND AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS). A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN
CONTRAST, A RIDGE AND ABOVE AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS
FORECAST IN THE VICINITY OF HAWAII, LEADING TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE STATE.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA, SOUTHEASTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW, WHILE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA DUE TO
PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE CONUS (EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF TEXAS, PORTIONS OF NORTH
DAKOTA, MINNESOTA, MICHIGAN, AND NORTHERN MAINE, WHERE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED) WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT
CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS,
UNDER PERSISTENT POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL
FORECASTS. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, SUPPORTED
BY THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINLAND
ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL TOOLS, WHILE BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, DUE TO
ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES IN THE PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS,
INCLUDING MUCH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, THE SOUTHERN TIER, AND THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 60 PERCENT FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS, AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE MOISTURE FLOW IS ENHANCED INTO
THESE AREAS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, SUPPORTED BY THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET
BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 07 - 13 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE
6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. RIDGING AND
ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND ALASKA,
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. WEAKLY POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND A RIDGE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS IN THE 8-14 DAY
PERIOD AVERAGES. A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. A TROUGH
AND CYCLONIC FLOW IS PREDICTED TO THE WEST OF HAWAII.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
THE CONUS IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, UNDER WIDESPREAD POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES (EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE, WHERE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED). CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (RANGING FROM A 60 TO 70 PERCENT
CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, WHERE THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE
TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR ALASKA (EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHERE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST), CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECAST
TOOLS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, UNDER WEAK POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FORECAST OVER
PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE OHIO VALLEY, PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE AND ABOVE
NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS PREDICTED OVER THESE AREAS. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, SUPPORTED BY AN
OPERATIONAL AUTOBLEND PRECIPITATION TOOL. PROBABILITIES EXCEED 50 PERCENT OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS, WITH ENHANCED SURFACE MOISTURE FLOW INTO THESE
REGIONS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20150402 - 20030401 - 20070315 - 20040319 - 19970310
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20150402 - 20040322 - 20070316 - 19970309 - 19890312
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 05 - 09 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 07 - 13 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE N N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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