671
FXUS02 KWBC 310732
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
332 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
VALID 12Z FRI APR 03 2026 - 12Z TUE APR 07 2026
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EAST-
CENTRAL U.S. LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...
...ANOTHER ROUND OF APRIL SNOW AND ICE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER FRIDAY-SATURDAY...
..OVERVIEW
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. LATE WEEK AND
PUSH A REASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
DRAW AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH FLOODING A
CONCERN ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ICE AND SNOW ARE FORECAST ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., BUT THE WEST CAN EXPECT WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGING.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN AGREEABLE IN SHOWING THE EXISTENCE OF THE
UPPER/SURFACE LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. LATE THIS WEEK,
BUT MORE SPREAD REGARDING THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES. FOR THE
MOST PART, GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
WHILE NON-NCEP MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWER. FOR THE 12/18Z MODEL CYCLE,
AN ECMWF/CMC HEAVY FORECAST WAS FAVORED (WHICH WERE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE SLOW 18Z AIFS). FORTUNATELY, THE INCOMING 00Z MODEL SUITE
SEEMS TO BE CONVERGING ON A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION FOR THE LOW
TRACKS, WITH THE GFS SLOWING DOWN AND OTHER MODELS SPEEDING UP
SOMEWHAT, FOR BETTER AGREEMENT.
UPPER TROUGHING THEN LOOKS TO MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY, ALBEIT WITH SOME MODEL SPREAD ON ITS
TIMING/STRENGTH. RIDGING UPSTREAM ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND SEEMS RATHER PREDICTABLE AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A STRONG UPPER LOW MAY APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AT THE TAIL END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD NEXT TUESDAY, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AND THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. LATE THIS WEEK. MOISTURE (WITH PWS OVER THE
90TH, PERHAPS 95TH PERCENTILE) AND INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TO POOL
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. MODEL AGREEMENT IS RATHER GOOD FOR A FOCUS OF HEAVY
RAIN TOTALS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS STORMS LIKELY
BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON GET REINFORCED THROUGH THE EVENING AND
NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE
EMBEDDED A SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY 4/FRIDAY ERO CENTERED OVER
OKLAHOMA FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THE AREA MAY BE SOMEWHAT
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE AFTER RAIN DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS SETUP AS WELL. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY AND PUSH
CONVECTION EAST WITH IT. THE FRONT STARTS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER
SATURDAY COMPARED TO FRIDAY, BUT ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE STILL IN PLACE AS WELL AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS.
FOR THE DAY 5/SATURDAY ERO, A LARGE MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE
STRETCHING FROM PARTS OF TEXAS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, OHIO VALLEY,
AND GREAT LAKES ALL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD
REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND PROVIDE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THERE, WHICH COULD LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST
MONDAY.
SNOW AND ICE ARE ALSO POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. LINGERING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY WHILE ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH SOME
SNOW REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY. FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND FARTHER EAST INTO
MAINE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN
SO STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES. STRONG WINDS COULD BE A THREAT
IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO ROCKIES AND PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND REACHING THE MIDWEST AND VICINITY BY
SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION, WITH POSSIBLY SOME
SNOW, IS FORECAST IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER BEHIND THE MAIN SYSTEM. SOME LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE BROAD WESTERLY FLOW. FARTHER
WEST, MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY DRY OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE
FOUR CORNERS CONVECTION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST MAY SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY MONDAY OR
TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS
HIGHS REACH THE 70S TO THE CANADIAN BORDER IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. A HANDFUL OF RECORD HIGHS COULD BE APPROACHED OR SET
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. BUT A COOLING TREND IS LIKELY TO SPREAD FROM
THE CENTRAL U.S. FRIDAY-SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY FOR MORE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE, THE WEST CAN EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES TO 10
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGING COMES IN.
TATE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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