014
FXUS06 KWBC 311902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE MARCH 31 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 06 - 10 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF ANOMALIES. ALL
ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE
BERING SEA, WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC TO THE COASTS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD, A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
WHILE A RIDGE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) FROM THE
WEST TO THE NORTHEAST. MODELS PREDICT A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO QUICKLY DEAMPLIFY
AND BE REPLACED BY THE RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE CONUS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN THAN THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED BY ALL
ENSEMBLE MEANS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN WAS WEIGHTED MORE IN THE MANUAL BLEND OF FORECASTS, DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SKILL.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA, SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN CONUS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE
GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, UNDER PERSISTENT POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN
TEXAS, THE GULF COAST, AND FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED MODEL TEMPERATURES.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, UNDER A
TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR REMAINING AREAS OF MAINLAND
ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR COASTAL AREAS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AS A RIDGE PUSHES INLAND DURING THE PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, DUE TO PREDICTED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW INTO THIS REGION. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM MONTANA TO
MINNESOTA, CONSISTENT WITH ECMWF MODEL PRECIPITATION. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTS, CONSISTENT
WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND THE CONSOLIDATION. AS A RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR ALL OF HAWAII, AHEAD OF A
PREDICTED TROUGH.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE LONGWAVE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN
FORECAST, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS, PARTICULARLY FOR THE EASTERN CONUS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 08 - 14 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FROM THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND
CANADIAN MODELS SHOW AN EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECASTS, WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND AMPLIFICATION OF A
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
PERSIST OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTH AMERICA IN DYNAMICAL
MODEL FORECASTS, WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN THE 0Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS. POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTEND ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE CONUS IN MODEL FORECASTS, WITH
A RIDGE AND GREATER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF
THE CONUS. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS MORE EXTENSIVE AND GREATER
MAGNITUDE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE CONUS THAN THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO BE
FORECAST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS AND
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER THE PREDICTED PERSISTENT RIDGE. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA, SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL TEMPERATURE
TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS IN THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD, UNDER PRIMARILY POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND CONSISTENT
WITH ECMWF MODEL TOOLS. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL EXCEED 60 PERCENT FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS
REGION, CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS. THE PATTERN OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS CHANGES RAPIDLY FROM THE START OF THE PERIOD, WITH RISING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE REGION. LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST, WITH NEAR
NORMAL SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SOUTH TEXAS, THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, AND NORTHERN
MAINE, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY FOR HAWAII IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH MOST
MODEL TOOLS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA, EXCLUDING THE SOUTH COAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INCREASINGLY FAVORED FOR MOST OF
THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, AS A RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR A LARGE SWATH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, INCLUDING THE SOUTHWEST,
FOUR CORNERS, HIGH PLAINS, GREAT PLAINS, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
MOST AREAS OF THE EASTERN CONUS, UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA, CONSISTENT WITH
ECMWF MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE
LIKELY FOR HAWAII AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20150402 - 20030401 - 20040318 - 20070315 - 20210331
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20150402 - 20040319 - 20070317 - 19970310 - 19890312
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 06 - 10 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B
TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA B N NEW YORK N B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B
PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 08 - 14 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A B MAINE A N
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page