609
FXUS01 KWBC 311949
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
348 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
VALID 00Z WED APR 01 2026 - 00Z FRI APR 03 2026
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY SNOW AND HAZARDOUS ICE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK...
...SNOW AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
AN ACTIVE START TO THE WEEK IS SET TO CONTINUE, AS WEATHER FROM
ALL FOUR SEASONS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY. BEGINNING IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S., SEPARATE PULSES OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AID IN SUSTAINING SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEMS
TODAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN THE MIDWEST AND
PLAINS. IN THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE INTO PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING, BRINGING PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS WITH
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HAIL. SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY WILL ALSO EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
SPECIFICALLY OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS. INTERACTION
WITH THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT AND A SUBTLE DRYLINE WILL AID
IN DRIVING CONVECTION, AND WILL ALSO BRING THE RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THESE REGIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TODAY.
ON WEDNESDAY, SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND EVEN
INTENSIFY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN ALACRITOUS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST, REACHING THE
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
PLAINS, AND WILL CONTINUE SUSTAINING A STATIONARY FRONT.
ADDITIONALLY, A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TEXAS, WHICH
WILL ACT AS A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THE STRONG INFLUX OF MOIST
GULF AIR WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN OVER THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE PLAINS, AND THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BRING VERY LARGE HAIL (OVER 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER), DAMAGING
WINDS, AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
MEANWHILE, A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO START
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, IN THE FORM OF A SIGNIFICANT
LATE SEASON WINTER STORM. HEAVY SNOW AND DISRUPTIVE ICE WILL BEGIN
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS, MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. SNOW WILL BE
THE MOST COMMON WINTER HAZARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. SNOWFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 3-6 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. SLEET WILL LIKELY
MIX WITH SNOW OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
MEANWHILE IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN, ICE WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN, WITH ONE-TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF WIDESPREAD
ICE EXPECTED. ISOLATED REGIONS COULD EXCEED UP TO A HALF AN INCH
OF ICE.
FURTHER WEST, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE CYCLONE
WILL CROSS INLAND INTO WASHINGTON/OREGON ON WEDNESDAY, AND WILL
THEN BECOME CONGLOMERATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION IN THE ROCKIES
AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN THE FORM OF RAIN, AND WINTRY MIX IN
REGIONS OF HIGHER ELEVATION. HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED
AS THE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. ON THURSDAY, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN,
BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL, AS
OPPOSED TO SNOWFALL CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
BLANCO-ALCALA
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