870
FXUS02 KWBC 311954
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
VALID 12Z FRI APR 03 2026 - 12Z TUE APR 07 2026
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EAST-
CENTRAL U.S. LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...
...ANOTHER ROUND OF APRIL SNOW AND ICE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER FRIDAY-SATURDAY...
..OVERVIEW
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. LATE WEEK AND
PUSH A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
DRAW AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ICE AND SNOW ARE FORECAST ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., BUT THE WEST CAN EXPECT WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGING.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS A REASONABLE REPRESENTATION OF
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A CONSENSUS SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO
THE EVOLUTION OF THE STRONG UPPER/SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH ONLY MINOR SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES NOTED. UPPER
TROUGHING THEN LOOKS TO MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BY
EARLY SUNDAY, ALBEIT WITH SOME MODEL SPREAD ON ITS TIMING/STRENGTH.
RIDGING UPSTREAM ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND SEEMS
RATHER PREDICTABLE AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THEN A STRONG UPPER LOW MAY APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AT THE TAIL END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD NEXT TUESDAY, WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD AND
RANGE OF OUTCOMES THAT ARE WORTH MONITORING.
THE WPC FORECAST WAS MADE UTILIZING A COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC EC, CMC, UKMET, EC-AIFS, AND 06Z GFS THROUGH DAY 4/5.
THEREAFTER, THE BLEND INCLUDED INCREASING WEIGHTING OF THE 00Z EPS
MEAN AND 06Z GEFS MEAN (OVER 50%), WHICH PROVIDED MORE STABILITY
AND LESS RELIANCE ON SMALLER SCALE DETAILS FOR DAY 6 AND 7.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AND THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. LATE THIS WEEK. MOISTURE (WITH PWS OVER THE
90TH, PERHAPS 95TH PERCENTILE) AND INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TO POOL
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. MODEL AGREEMENT IS RATHER GOOD FOR A FOCUS OF HEAVY
RAIN TOTALS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS STORMS LIKELY
BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON GET REINFORCED THROUGH THE EVENING AND
NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK (WITH MINOR NORTH AND EASTWARD
EXPANSIONS) IN THE DAY 4/FRIDAY ERO CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA FOR
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. DESPITE INITIALLY DRY SOILS, THE AREA
MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING AFTER RAIN DURING
THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. THERE COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS SETUP AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY AND PUSH CONVECTION EAST WITH IT. THE FRONT
STARTS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER SATURDAY COMPARED TO FRIDAY, BUT
ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE STILL IN PLACE AS WELL
AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS. FOR THE DAY 5/SATURDAY ERO, A LARGE
MARGINAL RISK REMAINS IN PLACE WHICH STRETCHES FROM PARTS OF TEXAS
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, OHIO VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES ALL ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND PROVIDE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES THERE, WHICH
COULD LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SNOW AND ICE ARE ALSO POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. LINGERING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY WHILE ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH SOME
SNOW REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY. FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND FARTHER EAST INTO
MAINE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW AND
ICE AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN SO STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
STRONG WINDS COULD BE A THREAT IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO ROCKIES
AND PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND REACHING
THE MIDWEST AND VICINITY BY SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, WITH POSSIBLY SOME SNOW, IS FORECAST IN THE NORTH-
CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER BEHIND
THE MAIN SYSTEM. SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE BROAD WESTERLY FLOW. FARTHER WEST, MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY
GENERALLY DRY OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE FOUR CORNERS CONVECTION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY SEE INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS
HIGHS REACH THE 70S TO THE CANADIAN BORDER IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. A HANDFUL OF RECORD HIGHS COULD BE APPROACHED OR SET
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. A COOLING TREND IS THEN LIKELY TO SPREAD FROM
THE CENTRAL U.S. FRIDAY-SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY FOR MORE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE, THE WEST CAN EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES TO 10
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGING COMES IN.
TATE/MILLER
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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