756
FXCA20 KWBC 011630
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1229 PM EDT WED APR 01 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 01 APRIL 2026 AT 1630 UTC:
MEXICO AND NORTH CENTRAL AMERICA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS BASE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MEXICO, WHILE IN THE MID LEVELS, THE TROUGH IS REFLECTED OVER THE
SAME REGION AND HAS ITS BASE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROVIDING
VENTILATION ALOFT FOR CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST, WITH
ITS BASE OVER OAXACA/CHIAPAS REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL PLACE THE DIVERGENT REGION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IN THE MID-LEVELS THIS WILL FAVOR THE
PROPAGATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE REGION, WHILE FUELING
THE INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION. EXPECT THE REGION TO SEE A CHANCE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA, THROUGH BELIZE, GUATEMALA, HONDURAS, AND EL
SALVADOR. LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED AS
MOISTURE ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE TRADE WINDS WITH THE PRESENCE
OF MOIST PLUMES PROPAGATING INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, THESE MOIST
PLUMES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ELEVATED AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER, LIMITING THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION VALUES TO FROM LIGHT TO
MODERATE AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY, THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ENTERS THE WEST
CARIBBEAN, WHERE IT WILL BRING THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND VENTILATE
THE CONVECTION IN THE REGION. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, THE EASTERLY
TRADES FAVOR ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE REGION WITH THE PRESENCE OF
LOW LEVEL JETS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT REACH THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST CARIBBEAN, EXPECT A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO
WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, A NEW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES, FAVORING A
DECREASE IN PRESSURES OVER THE REGION, AND ENHANCING THE MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EAST MEXICO, ACTIVATING THE NORTH AMERICA LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ALONG EASTERN MEXICO, FAVORING OROGRAPHIC LIFT AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL REGION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO, EXPECT ZONAL FLOW TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY PRECIPITATION, AND THUS EXPECT LIGHT TOTALS ON FRIDAY ALONG
THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL REGION. THE YUCATAN REGION AND IN
NORTH CENTRAL AMERICA, SOME MOISTURE IS STILL PROPAGATING INTO THE
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS AND THROUGH OROGRAPHIC LIFT, FAVORING LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY.
CARIBBEAN...
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN IS PRESENT
OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS RIDGING IS MET WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES AND MEANDERS IN THAT GENERAL AREA OVER THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. ON WEDNESDAY, MUCH OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT LIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS WITH MOIST PLUMES EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE
WINDS INTERACTING WITH THE ISLANDS. TOTAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT FOR WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ENTERS THE WEST CARIBBEAN AND BRINGS WITH IT A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TO WEST CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SOME
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION, BUT LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY IN WEST CUBA. TO THE EAST, DIURNAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, WITH PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING BETWEEN
10-20MM. ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW EXPECTED OVER
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS BY THE EVENING HOURS, BRINGING THE
DIVERGENT CONDITIONS INTO CENTRAL CUBA AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS
AND JAMAICA. IN THE MID LEVELS, THIS TROUGH IS REFLECTING OVER THE
SAME REGION, AND EXTENDING INTO HISPANIOLA AND TURKS AND CAICOS,
FAVORING THE CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. AS LOW
LEVEL JETS EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTH
CARIBBEAN, MOISTURE IS POOLING IN THE AREA, FAVORING MODERATE
PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN WEST CUBA, AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO
LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN EAST CUBA, THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS, AND JAMAICA ON FRIDAY.
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE REGION CONTINUES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
ASSISTANCE FROM A KELVIN WAVE THAT IS PROPAGATING OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK. THE KELVIN WAVE ENHANCES THE DIVERGENCE
IN THE REGION WHEREVER THERE ARE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP
CONVECTION IN THE REGION. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, VARIOUS TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES ARE PROPAGATING OVER THE AMAZON BASIN,
BECOMING THE TRIGGERS FOR THE CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
SOME OF THESE TROUGHS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY AVAILABLE MOISTURE VALUES
EXCEEDING 55MM, WHICH HELP PRODUCE AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AMAZON BASIN. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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