543
FXCA20 KWBC 021910
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
310 PM EDT THU APR 02 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 02 APRIL 2026 AT 1900 UTC:
THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN:
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, REFLECTED AT MID-LEVELS, IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN CUBA,
INCREASING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS
FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR CUBA. STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR JAMAICA. IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNDER 25MM DUE TO THE LACK OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE REGION.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST, UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE OVER JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, PRODUCING SOME RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE REGION. FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL AID THE ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE
BAHAMAS, TURKS AND CAICOS, AND HISPANIOLA. THIS, COMBINED WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE ATLANTIC, WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION
PARTICULARLY OVER THE BAHAMAS.
OVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN, RIDGING AND LOW VALUES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER PREVAIL, WHICH WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY STABLE
CONDITIONS. SOME RAINFALL DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING
CAN BE ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BRING SOME PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH PRESSURE DECREASING
OVER THE BAHAMAS REGION AS A RESPONSE TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA, INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA, BELIZE, AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH, AND SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE
REGION. ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 20-35MM, WITH
HIGHER ISOLATED VALUES. LIGHT RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR GUATEMALA, HONDURAS,
AND EL SALVADOR, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE REGION.
BY FRIDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES, FAVORING A DECREASE IN PRESSURES OVER THE REGION
AND ENHANCING THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EAST MEXICO. STRONG
FLOW WILL FAVOR OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER MEXICO, BRINGING SOME
RAINFALL INTO THE REGION. ACCUMULATIONS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 15-20MM.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE UNITED STATES INTO
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION BY SUNDAY.
THIS WILL INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE REGION,
BRINGING MODERATE RAINFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. ADDITIONALLY,
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THE REGION. TOTALS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM
20-45MM FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
OVER COSTA RICA, MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND THE
PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE REGION IS ANTICIPATED TO
PROMOTE RAINFALL ACTIVITY IN THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH DAILY ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 15-25MM.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO HAPPEN OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN AMAZON REGION, WHERE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED. THIS IS
FURTHER SUPPORTED FROM MID- AND UPPER-LEVELS BY THE PRESENCE OF
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. TOTALS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE AROUND 30-60MM, WITH HIGHER ISOLATED TOTALS.
PRECIPITATION CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY OVER THE
GUIANAS, WITH A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC, AND OVER THE RORAIMA REGION IN BRAZIL WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE BEING THE MAIN DRIVERS OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AMAZON REGION FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, HOWEVER, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL AMAZON REGION WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
IS ANTICIPATED TO CONVERGE, AND MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM
THE ATLANTIC AND THE ITCZ FURTHER SOUTH IN BRAZIL. PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE GUIANAS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
WITH A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATING IN THE REGION. DAILY TOTALS
WILL RANGE FROM 20-35MM, WITH HIGHER ISOLATED TOTALS. OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST OF TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA, AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WHICH WILL HELP THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION,THE FLOW IS EXPECTED,
HOWEVER, TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK, KEEPING ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LOWER
END.
RIVERA-TORRES...(WPC)
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