521
FXUS06 KWBC 021928
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU APRIL 02 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 08 - 12 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT A COMPLEX 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND VICINITY. A PAIR OF RIDGES ARE FORECAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA, RESPECTIVELY. A CUTOFF MID-LEVEL
LOW IS FORECAST NEAR THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. EXPANSIVE AND STRENGTHENING
RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF CANADA WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WEAK TROUGHING
IS FORECAST OVER FLORIDA. AS TIME PROGRESSES, THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. THE POSITIONING OF THIS STRENGTHENING
RIDGE SUPPORTS A POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND AN ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
UPSTREAM, THE CUT-OFF LOW FORECAST NEAR CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS
HAWAII WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF A PROLONGED ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN.
EXPANSIVE RIDGING SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AS THIS RIDGE STRENGTHENS.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTEND WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS MUCH LESS SUPPORTIVE FOR WARMTH ACROSS THE WEST, SO
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED RELATIVE
TO YESTERDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A TROUGH FORECAST OVER CANADA. A WEAK
TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN MAINE BUT WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS MAGNITUDE RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY AS HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST TO RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA DUE TO A PREDICTED
WEAK TROUGH NEARBY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
OVER NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A PREDICTED RIDGE
OVER THE BERING STRAIT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF HAWAII
DRIVEN LARGELY BY OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC. HOWEVER,
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE MUTED ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE, CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF A PREDICTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES, AS A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE EAST SUPPORTS ROBUST
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THESE REGIONS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PREDICTED FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY SERVE AS AN
ADDITIONAL FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. DUE TO THIS
COMBINATION OF FACTORS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 60 PERCENT FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND PARTS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CONVERSELY, THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAVOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE
EVOLUTION OF A CUTOFF LOW NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TELECONNECTIONS FROM THIS
CUTOFF FEATURE ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS HOWEVER THESE TELECONNECTIONS ARE FIGHTING AGAINST A DRY
CLIMATOLOGY THIS TIME OF YEAR. A VERY MODEST TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN NEAR AND AHEAD OF THIS PREDICTED CUTOFF. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF ALASKA BASED PRIMARILY ON
ANALOGS FROM THE FORECAST MID-LEVEL PATTERN AND TELECONNECTIONS FROM PREDICTED
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR HAWAII AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 10 - 16 2026
THE WEEK-2 PERIOD BEGINS WITH STRONG RIDGING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST
AND A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. A SECOND, WEAKER
TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGING
OVER THE EAST AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF ROBUST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A MEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A COMPLEX PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR
ALASKA WITH MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL
RIDGE AXES. HOWEVER, ALL MODELS AGREE IN FORECASTING ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AT LEAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD.
LATER IN THE PERIOD, THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA BUT THIS SCENARIO LACKS SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES. AS TIME PROGRESSES THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS PREDICTED TO
BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS SUCH THAT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD,
MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. ALL ENSEMBLE
MEANS SUPPORT THIS EVOLUTION TO A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN BUT DIFFER ON THE
EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES WITHIN THIS LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW AT THE END OF
WEEK 2. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS HAWAII AT LEAST UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. THEREAFTER THE ECMWF PROGRESSES THIS TROUGH EASTWARD TO A
POSITION OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS BY DAY 14. HOWEVER, THE CANADIAN AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE LESS SUPPORTIVE OF THIS EVOLUTION, AND GENERALLY FAVOR
A CONTINUATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS HAWAII FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS DUE TO STRONG
RIDGING FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND DUE TO MODESTLY RISING HEIGHTS
FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST LATER IN THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN
70 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN
OHIO VALLEY, EASTERN GREAT LAKES, AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DUE TO STRONG
RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODESTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDERNEATH PREDICTED SHALLOW CYCLONIC FLOW.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR NORTHWESTERN ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED
ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE WEAKLY FAVORED
FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA DUE TO POTENTIAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT LATER IN
WEEK-2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF HAWAII DUE TO ABOVE
NORMAL OBSERVED SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
A LONG DURATION ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS,
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES, AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
SUPPORTS ROBUST RETURN FLOW MOISTURE AT LEAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS
MOST OF THESE AREAS. ADDITIONAL DYNAMICS, IN THE FORM OF A MEAN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, SUPPORT EVEN GREATER CONFIDENCE (ABOVE 60 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS ALSO FAVORED (BUT WITH LESS CONFIDENCE THAN FARTHER TO THE EAST) FOR MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, SOUTHWEST, DUE TO A PREDICTED CUT-OFF
MID-LEVEL LOW DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD. DRIER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN
OREGON, AS WEAK RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
ALSO FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS NORTHWARD TO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC,
DUE TO STRONG RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM A PREDICTED MEAN POSITIVE
ANOMALY CENTER FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS
FAVORED FOR ALL OF HAWAII, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF WEEK-2.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO A LOWER-AMPLITUDE
PATTERN NEAR THE END OF WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20150402 - 20030402 - 20110413 - 20150407 - 20200326
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20150402 - 20070317 - 20030402 - 20040318 - 20110413
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 08 - 12 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO N A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N B MAINE N N
MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 10 - 16 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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