881
FXUS02 KWBC 030759
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
VALID 12Z MON APR 06 2026 - 12Z FRI APR 10 2026
..PATTERN OVERVIEW
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER 48 NEXT WEEK
AS HIGHLIGHTED BY TWO MAIN STREAMS. IN A STEADILY PROGRESSIVE AND
UNSETTLING NORTHERN STREAM, A LEADING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL EXIT AS AN UPSTREAM
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES ON IT'S HEELS FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. TO
THE NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, EASTERN PACIFIC SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED UPPER TROUGH/SYSTEM ENERGY WILL SLOWLY PUSH INLAND INTO THE
WEST BY LATER NEXT WEEK AND RIPPLE DOWNSTREAM FLOW AMPLIFICATION.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS,
BUT WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING OF SYSTEMS
EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHERN AND ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW.
A COMPOSITE BLEND OF REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED GUIDANCE OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS SEEMS TO PROVIDE A SOLID FORECAST
BASIS VALID FOR EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK IN A PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PREDICTABILITY OVERALL. FORECAST SPREAD INCREASES INTO LATER NEXT
WEEK AS THE 12 UTC CANADIAN/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES OFFERED A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW VERSUS BEST CLUSTERED OUTPUT OF
THE 12/18/00 UTC GFS/GEFS AND 12/00 UTC ECMWF/ECENS. FAVORED THE
LESS PROGRESSIVE CLUSTER GIVEN CLOSED SYSTEM NATURE WITHIN A
SEPARATED SOUTHERN STREAM. THE 00 UTC CANADIAN HAS SINCE TRENDED
SLOWER, BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE BLEND PROCESS ACTS TO
MITIGATE MUCH OF THE LINGERING SMALLER SCALE VARIANCE CONSISTENT
WITH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM PREDICTABILITY. THIS PLAN MAINTAINS GOOD WPC
PRODUCT CONTINUITY IN LINE WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A WAVY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH MAINLY OFFSHORE OF MOST LAND
AREAS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND GULF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH IT WILL STILL
BE PASSING OVER FLORIDA AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE
MOISTURE THERE AND POSSIBLY INTO GULF COASTAL AREAS. DECIDED TO
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT AREAS FOR
FLORIDA, DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION POSSIBLY
STAYING OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, FLORIDA IS WORTH MONITORING FOR
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. A WET PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST FOR
NEXT WEEK GIVEN SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ENERGY MAY BE REINFORCED
INTO LATER PERIOD WITH FLOW AMPLIFICATION.
FARTHER NORTH, THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW IN THE EASTERN TROUGH INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. THEN
AT LEAST ONE ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY
LASTING IN THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE, SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVES ALOFT AND ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE. THEN AS AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH MOVES TOWARD AND INTO THE WEST, LIFT AND POOLED
MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGAINZED PRECIPITATION WITH SLOW
TRACK WEDNESDAY INTO LATER WEEK, INCLUDING HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW.
SOME PRECIPITATION COULD STRETCH INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
MIDWEEK AS WELL WITH TIME, BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY.
A WARM EASTER SUNDAY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL YIELD CHILLIER
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE GENERALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE WEST CAN EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BY 10 TO 20 DEGREES UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGING FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD SPREAD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY FARTHER EAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE PUSHES EAST, WHILE THE WEST
COAST CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL ONCE AGAIN.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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