824
FXCA20 KWBC 031822
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
222 PM EDT FRI APR 03 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 03 APRIL 2026 AT 1830 UTC:
THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN:
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
WESTERN CUBA, WHICH IS REFLECTED AT MID-LEVELS AND PROPAGATING
EAST, WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE
BAHAMAS, CUBA, JAMAICA, AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. RELATIVELY LOW RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE BAHAMAS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
DRY AIR, BUT AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRANSPORTS MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION. OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA, THE PRESENCE OF A
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE,LEADING TO ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 25MM TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. OVER HISPANIOLA, AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASES IN THE REGION, AND THE PRESENCE
OF A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ENHANCES LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LIGHT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
EASTERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
OVER PUERTO RICO, EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE,
BRINGING SOME RAINFALL FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AND SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES.
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
OVER MEXICO, STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE GULF WILL AID THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE,
WHICH, COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING, WILL BRING SOME RAINFALL
OVER THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROUGH AT
MID- AND UPPER-LEVELS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY, PARTICULARLY OVER COAHUILA LATE ON
FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER, IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE UNITED STATES APPROACHES
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY AND INCREASES LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
THE NUEVO LEON REGION, WITH TOTALS RANGING FROM 25-50MM.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, REFLECTED AT MID-LEVELS,
PROPAGATING WEST AND ENTERING MEXICO EARLY ON SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AS THE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL IS ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, AND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO
INTO CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL FAVOR
INSTABILITY.
LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER GUATEMALA, BELIZE, HONDURAS, AND
EL SALVADOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
THE CARIBBEAN AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS IN THE
REGION ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SIMILARLY. OVER COSTA
RICA, MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, SOME MID-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ANTICIPATED,
WHICH WILL BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER
TOTALS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES
DECREASE IN THE REGION BUT DAILY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA WILL BE DUE
TO MOISTURE ADVECTION, DIURNAL HEATING, CONVECTIVELY INDUCED
TROUGHS, AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECASTED
FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
AMAZON BASINS WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONVERGE AND
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALSO INCREASE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
CENTRAL AMAZON BASIN TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA
OF INTEREST IS THE GUIANAS, WHERE A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS
PROPAGATING, ADVECTING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE INCREASING OVER THE
GUIANAS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE EASTERN
AMAZON REGION, WHERE A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL FURTHER
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 35-70MM
IN THAT REGION. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AMAZON BASIN FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH
LOW-LEVEL WINDS CONVERGING IN THAT REGION, HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH TOTALS REACHING 35-70MM.
RIVERA-TORRES...(WPC)
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